***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2018.-10.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 12.7 12.9 14.0 0.5 63.2 60.1 12.0 12.6 13.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 12.7 13.0 13.8 0.5 64.9 61.6 12.0 12.5 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 14.4 14.7 14.1 0.5 64.5 61.5 13.6 14.2 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 9.4 9.5 11.3 0.3 58.4 56.4 8.5 9.1 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 11.2 11.4 11.7 0.4 62.1 59.5 10.6 11.0 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 10.0 10.1 9.3 0.3 60.3 57.8 9.4 9.9 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 12.8 13.0 13.8 0.5 64.6 61.3 12.1 12.6 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 4.9 4.9 9.0 0.2 56.5 54.6 4.2 4.7 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 12.1 12.3 11.9 0.5 65.0 62.2 11.5 12.0 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 12.0 12.1 10.1 0.3 59.6 57.5 11.4 11.8 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 11.8 12.0 11.1 0.4 61.7 59.0 11.2 11.7 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 10.0 10.1 10.0 0.3 58.9 56.6 9.4 9.8 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 11.3 11.5 9.9 0.3 61.7 59.0 10.7 11.2 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 12.8 13.0 11.7 0.4 63.3 60.8 12.1 12.6 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 12.9 13.1 12.7 0.4 63.4 60.7 12.3 12.8 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 12.2 12.5 10.6 0.4 61.9 59.3 11.6 12.1 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 13.0 13.3 13.6 0.5 65.0 61.6 12.3 12.8 13.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 10.6 10.7 9.4 0.3 59.2 57.3 9.9 10.4 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 12.7 13.1 13.9 0.6 66.8 63.2 12.1 12.6 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 6.5 6.5 7.2 0.1 54.8 53.2 6.0 6.4 6.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 12.1 12.3 13.2 0.4 62.8 60.2 11.5 12.0 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 12.2 12.5 13.6 0.5 65.6 62.4 11.6 12.1 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 12.8 12.8 13.8 0.6 69.5 65.7 11.6 12.2 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 12.2 12.4 11.6 0.4 63.8 61.1 11.5 12.0 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 12.4 12.6 12.7 0.4 60.3 57.8 11.7 12.2 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 10.8 11.0 9.4 0.3 59.6 57.3 10.3 10.7 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 12.7 12.9 13.4 0.4 62.1 59.2 12.0 12.5 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 11.0 11.1 11.7 0.3 59.6 57.5 10.4 10.9 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 9.1 9.2 8.6 0.2 58.1 56.2 8.4 8.9 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 12.9 13.2 14.0 0.5 64.9 61.7 12.2 12.7 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------