***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2018.-20.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 24.1 22.6 21.1 -0.7 40.8 41.7 21.8 23.5 25.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 24.4 23.2 21.1 -0.6 42.2 42.8 22.3 24.0 25.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 24.5 23.0 21.1 -0.8 40.4 41.2 22.3 24.0 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 17.1 15.7 18.1 -0.7 41.0 41.9 14.9 16.6 18.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 24.7 23.3 19.5 -0.7 41.8 42.6 22.4 24.1 25.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 23.3 21.9 17.2 -0.7 41.6 42.3 21.1 22.6 24.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 24.0 23.0 21.1 -0.5 43.5 44.1 22.0 23.6 25.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 12.7 11.0 16.9 -0.9 39.1 40.0 10.5 12.0 13.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 24.2 22.9 20.4 -0.6 42.7 43.4 21.9 23.6 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 24.0 22.6 18.3 -0.8 41.2 42.0 21.8 23.4 24.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 24.4 23.1 19.8 -0.6 42.5 43.2 22.2 23.8 25.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 23.4 21.9 18.1 -0.8 40.7 41.5 21.2 22.8 24.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 24.5 23.3 19.2 -0.6 42.5 43.1 22.4 23.9 25.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 24.5 22.3 19.4 -1.2 35.6 36.7 22.0 23.8 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 24.7 23.7 20.9 -0.5 43.3 43.9 22.8 24.3 25.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 24.9 23.7 19.2 -0.6 42.7 43.4 22.7 24.3 25.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 23.8 22.8 20.7 -0.4 44.3 44.9 21.7 23.3 24.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 23.6 21.8 17.1 -1.1 37.7 38.7 21.3 23.0 24.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 23.9 22.7 21.1 -0.6 42.1 42.7 21.8 23.4 25.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 16.2 16.6 14.6 -1.4 34.1 35.2 16.5 18.1 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 24.4 22.8 21.0 -0.8 39.9 40.8 22.1 23.8 25.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 24.2 22.8 20.5 -0.7 40.4 41.2 22.0 23.8 25.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 24.2 23.1 21.1 -0.5 43.3 43.8 22.0 23.8 25.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 23.9 22.1 19.5 -1.0 38.1 39.0 21.5 23.2 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 24.3 22.8 20.0 -0.8 40.0 41.0 22.1 23.8 25.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 23.7 22.7 17.6 -0.5 44.5 44.9 21.7 23.2 24.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 24.2 22.8 20.5 -0.7 40.8 41.6 22.1 23.7 25.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 24.6 23.4 19.3 -0.6 42.4 43.0 22.5 24.1 25.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 18.6 16.6 16.2 -1.3 35.7 36.8 16.3 18.0 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 24.2 23.1 21.2 -0.6 42.2 42.8 22.1 23.8 25.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------