***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2018.-03.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 24.7 24.7 24.3 0.5 57.3 55.8 22.7 24.1 25.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 25.0 25.2 24.4 0.7 59.5 57.5 23.0 24.5 25.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 24.9 25.0 24.6 0.6 57.7 55.9 22.9 24.3 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 17.5 17.2 21.9 0.2 52.7 52.3 15.7 17.0 18.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 25.2 24.9 22.4 0.3 53.2 52.6 23.3 24.7 26.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 23.5 23.1 19.8 0.1 51.1 51.0 21.7 23.0 24.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 24.6 24.9 24.4 0.7 59.8 57.7 22.7 24.1 25.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 12.8 12.5 20.4 0.1 51.9 51.4 10.9 12.3 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 24.6 24.4 22.8 0.3 54.3 53.3 22.7 24.0 25.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 24.4 24.1 21.3 0.2 53.1 52.4 22.6 23.9 25.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 24.8 24.6 22.0 0.2 53.0 52.4 23.0 24.3 25.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 23.8 23.5 21.5 0.2 52.4 51.8 22.0 23.3 24.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 24.8 24.5 20.8 0.1 51.8 51.5 23.0 24.3 25.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 24.7 24.5 22.4 0.3 54.3 53.0 22.7 24.1 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 25.4 25.3 22.8 0.3 54.1 53.2 23.9 25.0 26.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 25.4 25.1 21.6 0.2 52.6 52.1 23.5 24.9 26.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 24.4 24.7 24.4 0.8 60.6 58.3 22.5 23.9 25.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 23.9 23.7 20.8 0.3 53.2 52.4 22.0 23.4 24.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 24.5 24.7 24.5 0.7 59.5 57.3 22.6 24.0 25.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 19.2 18.7 18.1 0.1 51.0 50.8 17.2 18.6 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 24.8 24.6 23.7 0.3 54.2 53.4 22.9 24.3 25.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 24.9 25.1 24.0 0.6 58.3 56.5 22.9 24.4 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 24.9 25.1 24.4 0.7 59.7 57.1 22.9 24.3 25.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 24.3 24.1 22.5 0.4 55.0 53.7 22.3 23.7 25.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 24.9 24.8 22.5 0.3 54.5 53.8 23.2 24.5 25.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 24.4 24.4 21.0 0.5 56.3 54.3 22.6 23.9 25.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 24.6 24.6 23.5 0.5 56.6 55.4 22.7 24.1 25.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 25.5 25.2 22.1 0.2 52.2 51.8 23.9 25.0 26.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 19.1 18.7 19.8 0.2 52.2 51.7 17.1 18.5 19.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 24.9 25.0 24.4 0.7 59.1 57.2 22.9 24.3 25.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------