***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.06.2018.-10.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 23.6 26.4 25.4 0.6 58.7 56.5 23.9 25.5 27.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 26.4 27.0 25.6 1.0 64.1 60.0 24.2 25.7 27.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 26.4 26.7 25.7 0.8 60.9 57.8 24.2 25.8 27.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 16.8 18.7 22.9 0.2 52.3 51.7 17.1 18.5 19.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 24.4 26.6 23.5 0.3 54.5 53.3 24.8 26.2 27.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 25.3 25.0 20.9 0.2 52.4 51.2 23.5 24.8 26.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 26.0 26.5 25.6 1.0 63.7 59.7 23.8 25.3 26.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 12.5 14.3 21.6 0.3 54.2 52.5 12.7 13.9 15.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 23.8 26.1 23.9 0.5 57.0 55.0 24.0 25.5 26.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 23.6 25.8 22.5 0.5 55.9 53.8 23.9 25.4 26.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 24.3 26.4 23.1 0.3 54.4 52.9 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 23.4 25.1 22.7 0.3 54.1 52.4 23.5 24.8 26.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 26.7 26.3 21.9 0.2 52.7 51.5 24.8 26.1 27.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 26.2 26.4 23.7 0.7 59.4 56.6 23.9 25.5 27.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 27.0 26.7 23.9 0.2 53.6 52.5 25.1 26.4 27.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 25.1 26.9 22.7 0.3 53.5 52.2 25.4 26.6 27.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 26.9 26.7 25.6 1.2 66.2 61.3 23.7 25.2 26.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 25.4 25.3 22.0 0.5 56.5 54.2 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 26.9 26.6 25.8 1.1 64.7 60.4 23.7 25.2 26.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 20.9 20.6 19.3 0.3 53.9 52.4 18.9 20.3 21.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 26.4 26.3 24.8 0.5 56.6 54.8 24.1 25.7 27.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 26.3 27.0 25.4 1.1 64.7 60.3 24.1 25.7 27.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 27.3 27.0 25.8 1.2 65.9 61.1 24.0 25.6 27.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 25.7 25.9 23.7 0.7 59.1 56.3 23.6 25.1 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 24.0 26.2 23.5 0.4 55.3 54.0 24.3 25.8 27.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 26.1 26.0 22.0 0.4 55.7 53.5 24.5 25.7 26.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 23.8 26.2 24.5 0.6 58.1 55.9 24.1 25.5 26.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 24.9 26.6 23.1 0.1 51.8 51.1 25.2 26.4 27.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 18.3 20.4 21.0 0.4 55.2 53.4 18.5 20.0 21.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 26.2 26.7 25.6 0.9 62.6 59.1 24.1 25.6 27.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------