***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2018.-10.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 24.6 24.3 23.3 0.0 50.5 50.5 23.3 24.2 25.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 25.0 24.8 23.4 0.2 54.6 53.6 23.7 24.6 25.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 24.9 24.6 23.5 0.0 50.8 50.7 23.6 24.6 25.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 16.2 16.9 20.6 -0.3 44.5 45.5 16.3 17.2 18.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 23.7 24.6 21.5 -0.2 45.9 46.4 23.9 24.8 25.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 22.2 22.9 19.0 -0.3 43.1 43.9 22.4 23.2 24.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 24.6 24.5 23.4 0.2 55.3 54.0 23.3 24.2 25.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 11.4 12.3 19.3 -0.4 42.6 43.3 11.8 12.6 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 23.1 24.1 22.1 -0.1 48.0 48.1 23.3 24.2 25.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 22.9 23.8 20.4 -0.2 45.2 45.6 23.2 24.1 24.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 23.4 24.3 21.4 -0.2 45.5 45.8 23.6 24.5 25.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 22.4 23.1 20.4 -0.3 44.3 44.7 22.6 23.4 24.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 23.5 24.3 20.4 -0.3 44.6 45.0 23.7 24.6 25.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 23.3 24.1 21.5 -0.3 44.7 45.7 23.5 24.4 25.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 25.3 24.9 22.3 -0.1 47.5 48.0 24.2 25.0 25.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 24.0 24.8 20.8 -0.2 45.3 45.7 24.2 25.1 25.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 24.4 24.4 23.3 0.4 57.5 55.5 23.1 24.0 24.9 29 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 22.5 23.3 19.6 -0.3 43.3 44.3 22.8 23.6 24.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 24.5 24.4 23.5 0.2 55.0 53.9 23.2 24.1 24.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 17.5 18.3 17.0 -0.5 39.0 40.5 18.0 18.8 19.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 23.3 24.2 22.9 -0.2 46.5 47.2 23.5 24.4 25.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 24.9 24.7 23.0 0.2 53.7 52.9 23.5 24.5 25.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 24.8 24.8 23.5 0.3 56.5 54.9 23.6 24.5 25.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 22.9 23.7 21.6 -0.2 46.1 46.7 23.0 23.9 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 24.9 24.3 21.8 -0.1 47.0 47.6 23.6 24.5 25.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 24.3 23.9 19.9 0.0 49.5 48.4 23.2 24.0 24.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 24.6 24.2 22.6 0.0 49.9 49.9 23.4 24.2 25.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 25.3 24.7 21.2 -0.3 44.6 45.5 24.2 25.0 25.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 17.4 18.2 18.6 -0.5 40.8 42.2 17.8 18.7 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 24.8 24.6 23.5 0.2 53.6 52.9 23.5 24.4 25.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------