***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2018.-20.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 24.7 34.8 34.3 193.6 86.4 80.8 7.2 12.3 19.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 17 83 100 17.7 23.5 32.3 184.8 84.4 78.7 5.8 9.5 14.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 22.1 27.6 27.7 161.8 80.3 74.1 6.9 11.9 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 24.2 37.3 35.4 190.7 86.7 81.1 5.3 10.3 17.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 21.5 28.5 27.9 163.2 81.3 73.9 5.3 10.3 17.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 18.0 26.2 34.4 176.8 85.3 78.2 5.4 9.3 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 18.5 25.2 32.2 179.3 83.7 78.0 4.8 8.8 14.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 28.8 31.1 28.1 131.5 73.4 65.8 12.5 18.9 26.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 17.9 22.7 27.5 159.1 81.0 73.4 5.0 9.1 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 21.1 23.0 28.4 137.0 74.8 67.6 7.8 12.5 18.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 16.2 19.0 25.0 142.4 76.3 67.9 4.0 7.9 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 15.2 17.4 24.3 140.7 75.9 67.5 4.7 8.3 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 14.8 16.6 25.6 140.5 75.7 68.0 4.3 7.6 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 25.1 29.6 33.6 146.9 77.1 69.2 6.2 12.1 20.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 12 88 100 12.7 20.1 33.1 212.1 87.8 81.7 2.6 5.3 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 19.2 22.6 25.2 147.9 77.8 69.5 6.0 10.2 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 19 81 100 18.0 24.5 32.1 182.5 84.0 77.0 5.1 9.1 14.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 24.2 25.0 27.8 129.9 72.8 65.7 7.9 13.5 20.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 19.6 27.3 32.1 184.3 84.4 78.2 6.0 10.3 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 22.9 22.2 26.4 116.9 68.0 61.3 7.8 13.5 21.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 17.4 22.1 28.3 165.5 81.7 75.2 5.2 9.0 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 20.9 28.8 31.8 182.5 83.9 76.4 7.1 11.7 17.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 18.8 25.2 31.1 177.1 83.3 76.5 6.9 10.9 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 23.6 25.9 26.9 137.7 75.0 68.2 8.1 13.5 20.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 18.0 27.2 36.5 190.4 85.9 79.6 4.4 8.4 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 22 78 100 16.2 21.0 29.2 166.9 81.9 74.0 4.5 8.1 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 17 83 100 22.7 35.0 37.2 197.4 87.1 81.3 5.5 10.4 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 15.4 22.1 32.0 187.6 85.6 78.5 4.2 7.5 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 27.8 28.6 27.5 125.4 71.2 63.8 13.4 19.2 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 17 83 100 19.3 25.0 31.1 180.2 83.7 78.4 6.3 10.3 15.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------