***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2018.-27.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 6.2 17.0 20.5 113.5 67.7 52.7 5.9 10.4 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 5.1 13.7 18.5 119.9 69.7 55.3 4.8 8.1 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 18.0 19.4 23.3 133.2 73.5 59.5 5.9 10.1 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 23.4 29.3 27.8 155.3 78.9 58.7 8.4 13.9 20.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 22.6 27.5 27.6 154.7 79.0 62.0 8.5 13.4 19.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 16.8 17.8 26.9 128.5 72.3 59.2 4.2 8.2 14.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 4.3 12.9 16.8 109.3 66.5 53.0 4.1 7.7 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 30.2 34.7 26.5 143.9 76.7 62.5 11.4 18.1 26.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 18.8 21.0 25.1 139.2 75.3 57.9 5.4 9.8 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 23.5 26.2 27.7 142.5 76.1 61.2 8.3 13.6 20.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 16.9 20.0 27.4 147.1 77.7 61.8 5.7 9.5 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 18.6 21.6 24.3 141.3 76.1 60.8 5.2 9.8 15.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 17.4 21.7 30.7 155.4 79.5 66.0 4.7 8.8 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 7.2 18.8 26.3 121.6 70.1 56.5 7.0 11.3 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 5.9 26.1 28.6 164.8 80.5 58.1 5.6 10.3 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 16.2 20.4 28.4 154.4 79.2 64.9 4.8 8.5 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 4.2 11.1 16.1 106.2 65.5 52.1 3.9 7.1 11.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 20.4 22.0 28.7 135.5 74.2 60.9 6.3 11.1 17.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 6.0 17.9 19.3 122.1 70.5 55.7 5.7 10.1 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 19.0 22.7 30.9 148.9 78.6 66.7 7.0 11.2 16.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 5.2 17.9 23.7 135.0 74.1 56.5 4.8 8.7 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 4.4 13.6 17.6 114.5 67.9 52.9 4.2 7.9 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 4.1 13.2 20.6 120.9 70.0 55.2 4.1 7.3 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 18.2 19.1 26.3 129.3 72.5 58.3 5.2 9.6 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 13.0 20.7 27.0 136.5 74.1 58.7 5.3 9.9 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 18.1 21.5 27.4 141.9 76.3 62.0 6.1 10.4 16.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 12.9 17.3 22.8 115.8 68.2 53.6 5.4 9.8 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 17.2 22.6 27.7 161.8 79.9 59.1 5.4 9.6 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 26.7 30.7 31.2 144.0 76.9 64.8 9.9 15.9 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 5.1 15.9 19.6 121.9 70.4 56.3 4.6 8.5 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------