***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2018.-03.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 7.5 17.7 16.9 100.0 62.9 50.1 7.1 12.4 19.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 6.7 17.3 15.7 97.2 62.2 49.2 5.9 11.5 19.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 16.8 20.3 17.4 106.2 64.8 53.3 7.5 13.2 20.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 19.3 25.5 20.9 116.8 68.8 54.9 8.7 15.1 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 14.6 18.4 19.3 112.8 67.1 53.3 6.4 11.3 17.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 18.0 20.5 23.0 109.1 65.2 52.4 10.8 15.4 20.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 5.2 14.3 15.4 95.6 61.6 48.8 4.6 9.4 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 28.8 33.8 21.7 111.1 66.2 52.6 15.7 23.9 33.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 13.0 14.6 18.2 104.0 63.6 51.6 5.3 9.7 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 8.8 19.5 21.6 106.1 63.9 51.6 8.4 13.7 20.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 6.9 16.7 17.4 107.1 65.1 50.6 6.5 11.1 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 8.9 19.3 19.5 112.4 66.8 51.9 8.7 13.3 19.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 15.9 20.3 23.0 121.2 69.9 53.8 8.8 13.3 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 10.5 26.0 22.1 101.2 61.9 51.8 9.2 17.8 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 12.7 18.2 18.5 120.7 70.3 54.3 4.5 9.2 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 7.1 18.0 19.9 113.1 67.1 51.3 6.7 11.4 17.5 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 6.2 15.7 15.0 91.6 60.6 47.3 6.0 11.2 18.4 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 9.9 23.3 24.6 109.6 64.7 53.3 9.8 16.1 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 5.4 16.2 16.1 100.5 63.2 49.7 4.5 9.8 17.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 18.4 22.9 25.3 116.3 67.8 56.1 9.7 15.1 21.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 15.3 17.7 17.5 104.9 64.4 52.6 7.3 12.1 18.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 6.7 21.4 16.4 101.7 64.2 50.5 6.0 12.5 22.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 6.9 17.9 16.9 103.1 63.6 50.1 6.9 12.1 19.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 20.6 23.4 21.6 107.4 64.3 53.3 10.2 16.4 24.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 15.0 18.0 19.9 105.6 64.8 52.7 6.2 11.4 18.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 5.2 17.4 21.2 122.5 70.3 55.3 4.6 9.0 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 14.2 15.4 18.2 98.9 62.4 50.3 6.5 11.1 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 13.6 17.3 19.8 116.3 68.6 54.5 6.8 11.0 16.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 24.4 29.3 25.4 113.9 66.7 55.1 12.1 19.5 28.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 14.9 17.2 16.3 102.2 63.8 51.1 6.3 11.4 18.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------