***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.06.2018.-10.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 19.6 21.6 17.5 95.0 61.8 47.0 8.0 15.0 24.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 19.6 21.0 14.8 91.4 60.7 48.2 9.1 15.6 24.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 20.2 20.9 16.0 89.2 59.3 46.8 8.4 15.7 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 8.8 26.4 20.9 116.8 68.8 52.9 8.5 15.2 24.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 17.1 19.7 18.1 102.8 64.2 49.8 7.2 13.0 20.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 8.7 21.2 22.7 111.5 66.2 52.4 8.4 13.9 21.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 16.8 17.6 14.8 91.2 60.0 47.3 8.6 13.7 20.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 26.4 29.3 20.2 102.2 63.0 51.0 13.4 21.3 31.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 18.4 19.5 18.0 93.6 60.9 47.8 9.6 15.0 21.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 17.5 18.4 20.9 96.2 60.8 49.2 8.1 13.8 21.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 16.6 20.1 17.6 107.3 65.5 51.0 6.8 12.6 20.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 5.7 16.4 17.8 106.1 64.9 51.3 5.0 9.9 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 7.0 19.9 20.5 113.9 67.5 52.8 6.3 11.7 19.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 25.8 24.8 19.3 86.6 57.0 46.5 13.0 20.9 30.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 13.9 20.7 18.3 124.0 71.5 53.5 4.8 9.8 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 5.4 17.1 19.1 112.8 67.3 51.6 4.7 9.5 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 9.3 21.1 13.5 82.7 57.3 45.5 8.4 16.3 27.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 20.2 20.6 22.0 92.4 58.9 49.6 11.7 17.1 23.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 21.8 22.0 14.2 86.8 58.5 47.2 9.5 17.1 27.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 6.9 17.7 22.0 100.2 61.6 51.4 6.9 12.4 20.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 15.8 17.9 17.7 96.6 62.2 47.2 6.0 11.9 20.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 9.3 16.8 12.4 73.5 52.8 42.8 8.9 15.5 24.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 16.8 15.8 13.8 81.9 56.2 45.8 7.5 13.2 20.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 22.6 23.3 19.0 90.0 58.7 48.7 12.5 19.2 27.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 8.6 23.6 20.4 105.4 65.1 48.1 8.3 15.0 24.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 12.5 17.4 18.1 117.8 69.0 54.3 5.0 9.5 15.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 19.6 22.1 19.5 99.1 63.0 47.6 7.4 14.4 24.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 5.7 17.3 20.4 120.9 70.1 53.7 5.2 9.5 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 13.3 25.3 21.3 91.8 58.3 48.9 13.1 20.8 30.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 21.3 22.7 15.2 92.3 60.7 48.2 11.3 17.7 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------