***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2018.-10.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 88.3 94.0 89.1 125.5 73.6 64.0 50.9 66.3 83.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 78.6 82.5 81.3 124.6 72.5 66.7 45.4 59.2 74.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 74.8 93.3 84.5 122.4 71.8 63.2 52.1 68.1 85.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 100.4 119.9 105.1 145.3 82.9 72.1 56.7 73.6 91.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 84.1 94.9 92.9 133.4 78.4 67.4 51.0 64.7 79.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 79.4 88.6 106.9 130.7 78.7 69.7 47.3 60.0 73.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 72.5 73.8 79.3 120.6 70.6 64.4 40.0 53.2 68.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 121.9 126.5 96.4 122.3 73.6 62.7 87.0 102.1 117.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 73.1 76.3 88.8 123.3 72.9 62.9 49.0 59.4 70.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 86.0 88.5 98.6 119.7 71.6 61.5 54.1 67.7 82.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 71.4 78.2 87.4 127.0 75.7 64.5 46.4 57.3 69.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 72.4 77.5 85.9 125.4 74.8 63.6 43.9 55.7 68.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 72.5 79.7 99.8 133.2 79.0 68.0 45.5 55.9 67.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 93.3 104.3 101.4 114.3 67.0 59.6 69.1 85.3 103.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 71.4 91.6 98.4 156.2 85.0 73.2 37.4 50.5 65.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 72.3 81.4 92.6 132.4 78.3 67.2 42.9 54.9 67.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 83.0 81.1 76.7 117.2 68.4 62.8 41.9 58.6 77.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 80.2 90.1 103.1 115.8 68.9 60.0 62.2 74.4 87.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 87.6 91.5 81.7 124.5 72.5 66.4 50.0 65.7 82.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 84.7 87.4 104.6 120.3 72.9 62.9 59.5 70.1 81.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 74.1 79.0 87.3 125.2 73.7 62.8 45.4 57.7 71.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 88.2 88.8 78.2 118.8 69.3 63.2 49.9 65.9 84.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 73.1 75.9 82.4 121.6 71.0 64.2 45.6 57.9 71.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 82.3 90.0 93.8 115.7 68.2 59.7 66.8 77.5 88.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 84.4 93.3 103.8 134.4 78.6 67.7 50.2 63.5 78.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 70.7 81.8 95.9 138.0 81.3 70.3 39.6 51.3 64.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 84.8 90.2 97.7 127.6 74.9 65.0 51.6 65.0 80.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 66.1 78.9 100.0 146.8 82.6 71.3 39.3 49.9 61.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 99.7 113.7 105.3 118.3 70.8 61.4 78.3 92.9 108.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 79.1 85.0 82.3 125.0 72.9 66.2 46.0 60.3 76.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------