***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.05.2017.-21.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 82 18 0 100 10.1 9.5 10.4 -2.1 14.8 18.5 10.9 11.9 12.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 81 19 0 100 10.1 9.9 10.3 -1.8 17.8 21.0 10.9 11.9 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 82 18 0 100 11.5 11.2 10.6 -1.8 17.0 20.4 12.4 13.5 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 82 18 0 100 6.2 5.5 7.8 -2.1 14.9 18.6 7.3 8.6 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 83 17 0 100 8.8 8.5 8.6 -2.0 15.9 19.3 9.6 10.5 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 85 15 0 100 7.6 7.2 5.8 -2.0 13.5 17.0 8.4 9.2 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 84 16 0 100 10.0 9.5 10.1 -2.0 15.1 18.5 10.9 11.9 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 74 26 0 100 2.4 2.1 6.1 -1.6 19.3 23.4 3.1 4.1 5.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 76 24 0 100 9.8 9.6 9.0 -1.5 19.3 23.2 10.5 11.3 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 74 26 0 100 9.9 9.7 7.2 -1.5 20.0 24.0 10.4 11.2 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 85 15 0 100 9.5 9.3 8.2 -1.7 17.2 20.7 10.2 11.1 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 76 24 0 100 7.7 7.4 7.1 -1.7 17.8 21.7 8.3 9.1 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 87 13 0 100 9.0 8.5 7.1 -1.9 13.2 17.5 9.7 10.6 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 10.2 10.3 8.9 -1.2 23.6 27.8 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 86 14 0 100 10.5 10.1 9.4 -1.9 13.8 17.7 11.2 12.0 12.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 84 16 0 100 9.7 9.2 7.7 -1.9 14.7 18.6 10.6 11.5 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 77 23 0 100 10.5 10.3 10.1 -1.6 19.6 23.1 11.2 12.2 13.1 29 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 8.3 8.2 6.7 -1.4 23.0 26.5 8.7 9.5 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 79 21 0 100 10.3 10.2 10.4 -1.6 20.1 23.1 11.0 12.0 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 4.5 4.4 4.8 -1.4 23.5 27.2 4.9 5.6 6.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 81 19 0 100 9.7 9.3 10.0 -1.8 16.3 19.9 10.4 11.3 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 72 28 0 100 9.8 9.7 10.4 -1.4 22.2 25.5 10.4 11.3 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 74 26 0 100 10.0 10.0 10.5 -1.3 23.6 26.5 10.6 11.5 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 9.8 9.8 8.8 -1.4 21.9 25.9 10.4 11.2 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 87 13 0 100 9.8 9.3 9.4 -2.3 13.2 17.0 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 78 22 0 100 8.7 8.3 6.2 -1.9 16.0 19.5 9.4 10.2 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 87 13 0 100 9.6 8.8 9.8 -2.3 13.0 16.7 10.8 12.1 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 85 15 0 100 8.5 8.2 8.3 -2.0 14.5 18.1 9.3 10.0 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 6.6 6.6 6.0 -1.2 25.0 28.5 7.2 8.3 9.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 83 17 0 100 10.1 9.8 10.5 -1.9 16.7 20.0 11.0 12.1 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------