***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.05.2017.-28.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 78 22 0 100 10.4 10.4 11.8 -1.7 21.5 25.6 11.2 12.2 13.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 74 26 0 100 10.6 10.5 11.6 -1.7 21.0 25.6 11.3 12.3 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 78 22 0 100 12.2 12.2 11.9 -1.6 21.0 25.4 13.0 14.0 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 77 23 0 100 6.6 6.6 9.5 -1.6 22.0 26.2 7.5 8.7 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 80 20 0 100 9.0 8.9 9.8 -1.7 20.3 24.8 9.8 10.8 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 78 22 0 100 7.9 7.9 7.5 -1.5 21.4 25.6 8.6 9.5 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 10.6 10.4 11.6 -1.7 21.0 25.6 11.2 12.2 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 82 18 0 100 2.5 2.3 7.1 -1.7 18.0 23.2 3.4 4.4 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 79 21 0 100 9.9 9.8 10.0 -1.5 21.2 25.7 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 79 21 0 100 9.7 9.6 8.2 -1.6 19.3 24.2 10.5 11.5 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 80 20 0 100 9.7 9.6 9.2 -1.6 19.4 24.3 10.5 11.4 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 80 20 0 100 7.7 7.5 8.0 -1.7 18.8 23.7 8.5 9.5 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 78 22 0 100 9.2 9.0 8.1 -1.6 19.2 23.6 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 78 22 0 100 10.7 10.5 9.7 -1.6 19.5 24.5 11.4 12.3 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 11.0 11.1 11.1 -1.3 25.4 29.1 11.6 12.5 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 79 21 0 100 10.1 10.0 8.8 -1.6 20.0 24.6 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 73 27 0 100 10.9 10.7 11.4 -1.7 21.1 25.8 11.5 12.5 13.5 29 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 8.4 8.1 7.5 -1.6 19.9 24.9 9.0 10.0 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 76 24 0 100 10.6 10.5 11.6 -1.6 21.3 25.9 11.3 12.2 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 79 21 0 100 4.4 4.1 5.5 -1.7 18.2 23.3 5.1 6.1 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 77 23 0 100 9.9 9.8 11.2 -1.6 20.7 25.2 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 76 24 0 100 10.1 9.9 11.3 -1.7 19.6 24.4 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 75 25 0 100 10.4 10.3 11.5 -1.5 22.0 26.6 11.0 11.9 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 75 25 0 100 10.0 9.8 9.6 -1.6 20.0 25.1 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 78 22 0 100 10.1 9.9 10.6 -1.9 19.9 24.3 10.9 11.9 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 73 27 0 100 8.8 8.8 7.6 -1.5 22.9 27.1 9.4 10.3 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 78 22 0 100 10.5 10.4 11.2 -1.8 20.8 25.1 11.3 12.3 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 77 23 0 100 9.0 9.2 10.0 -1.4 24.1 27.8 9.7 10.6 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 6.9 6.6 6.7 -1.7 18.6 23.9 7.6 8.7 9.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 74 26 0 100 10.7 10.5 11.8 -1.7 20.7 25.2 11.4 12.4 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------