***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.06.2017.-11.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 14.6 14.5 15.2 0.2 54.8 54.0 13.4 14.2 15.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 14.6 14.5 15.2 0.3 55.8 54.5 13.1 14.2 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 16.1 16.0 15.3 0.2 54.5 53.6 14.6 15.7 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 11.4 11.1 12.6 0.1 53.2 52.9 9.7 10.9 12.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 12.7 12.6 12.6 0.1 52.9 52.6 11.7 12.4 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 11.6 11.4 10.6 0.1 52.4 52.3 10.6 11.3 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 14.6 14.5 15.2 0.3 55.5 54.5 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 4.9 6.2 10.3 0.1 51.3 50.7 5.1 6.1 7.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 13.8 13.6 12.9 0.2 53.9 53.1 12.7 13.5 14.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 13.6 13.4 11.3 0.1 52.0 51.5 12.6 13.3 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 12.3 13.2 11.9 0.1 52.6 52.0 12.4 13.1 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 11.6 11.4 11.1 0.1 52.8 52.0 10.6 11.3 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 13.0 12.8 10.8 0.1 52.1 52.2 12.0 12.7 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 14.5 14.2 12.9 0.1 51.9 52.0 13.2 14.1 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 13.4 14.4 13.9 0.2 54.7 53.5 13.5 14.2 14.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 13.9 13.7 11.5 0.1 53.2 53.0 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 14.8 14.8 15.0 0.3 56.0 54.5 13.5 14.5 15.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 12.4 12.2 10.5 0.1 51.5 51.4 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 14.4 14.3 15.1 0.3 55.4 54.2 13.2 14.1 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 8.1 7.7 8.2 -0.1 48.4 48.9 7.1 7.8 8.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 13.8 13.7 14.3 0.2 54.3 53.6 12.8 13.5 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 14.0 13.9 14.7 0.2 53.1 52.3 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 14.1 14.0 14.9 0.2 54.9 53.9 12.9 13.8 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 13.9 13.7 12.6 0.1 53.1 52.7 12.7 13.6 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 14.1 14.0 13.7 0.2 53.7 53.4 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 11.3 12.4 10.6 0.2 54.6 53.1 11.5 12.2 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 14.3 14.2 14.5 0.3 55.1 54.3 12.9 13.9 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 12.8 12.6 13.0 0.2 54.1 53.4 11.8 12.4 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 10.8 10.3 9.8 0.0 48.9 49.3 9.4 10.4 11.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 14.8 14.7 15.3 0.2 54.8 53.9 13.4 14.4 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------