***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.05.2017.-11.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 11.9 11.8 12.8 -1.0 22.2 27.0 12.2 12.7 13.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 11.8 11.8 12.7 -0.9 24.6 29.3 12.1 12.7 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 72 28 0 100 13.4 13.3 13.0 -0.9 22.6 27.4 13.7 14.3 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 8.2 8.0 10.3 -1.1 19.1 24.3 8.6 9.3 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 10.4 10.3 10.6 -1.1 18.6 24.0 10.7 11.2 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 78 22 0 100 9.2 9.1 8.3 -1.0 18.7 23.3 9.5 10.0 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 12.0 11.9 12.7 -1.0 23.5 28.0 12.2 12.7 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 75 25 0 100 3.9 3.8 8.1 -1.0 19.1 24.1 4.3 4.8 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 11.4 11.3 10.8 -0.9 21.2 26.5 11.7 12.1 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 74 26 0 100 11.2 11.1 9.1 -0.9 20.0 25.2 11.5 12.0 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 11.0 10.9 10.0 -1.0 19.4 24.6 11.3 11.8 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 75 25 0 100 9.1 9.0 9.0 -1.0 19.6 24.3 9.5 9.9 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 74 26 0 100 10.6 10.4 8.9 -1.0 17.8 22.8 10.9 11.3 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 11.9 11.9 10.8 -0.8 22.7 27.5 12.2 12.7 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 12.2 12.1 11.7 -0.9 21.0 26.1 12.5 12.9 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 75 25 0 100 11.3 11.2 9.6 -1.0 19.1 24.1 11.7 12.2 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 12.3 12.2 12.6 -0.9 26.0 30.5 12.5 13.0 13.5 29 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 9.7 9.6 8.5 -0.9 21.1 25.8 10.1 10.6 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 11.9 11.9 12.8 -0.9 25.2 29.8 12.2 12.7 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 76 24 0 100 5.8 5.7 6.4 -1.0 19.6 24.4 6.1 6.5 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 11.4 11.3 12.1 -1.0 20.8 26.1 11.7 12.1 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 11.6 11.5 12.5 -0.9 24.6 29.2 11.8 12.2 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 11.5 11.5 12.6 -0.8 26.2 30.6 11.8 12.3 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 70 30 0 100 11.3 11.2 10.6 -0.9 22.1 27.0 11.6 12.1 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 11.5 11.3 11.5 -1.2 18.7 23.9 11.9 12.4 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 10.2 10.0 8.4 -0.9 21.9 26.4 10.4 10.8 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 11.8 11.6 12.2 -1.1 20.3 25.3 12.1 12.6 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 10.3 10.2 10.7 -1.0 20.2 25.2 10.6 11.0 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 8.1 8.0 7.7 -0.9 20.2 24.9 8.5 9.1 9.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 12.1 12.1 12.9 -1.0 23.3 27.9 12.4 12.9 13.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------