***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.05.2017.-28.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 21.7 21.5 21.5 -2.3 21.7 26.6 22.7 24.1 25.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 75 25 0 100 22.4 22.4 21.5 -2.3 22.2 27.2 23.3 24.5 25.7 30 Becej 27400G00 74 26 0 100 22.3 22.1 21.5 -2.4 21.3 26.2 23.2 24.4 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 14.6 14.5 18.9 -2.2 22.8 27.4 15.5 17.0 18.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 22.1 21.9 19.6 -2.4 21.2 26.1 23.1 24.5 25.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 75 25 0 100 20.5 20.6 17.5 -2.2 23.8 28.0 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 73 27 0 100 21.9 21.7 21.4 -2.3 21.5 26.6 22.7 24.0 25.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 10.0 9.6 17.5 -2.5 20.4 25.7 10.9 12.4 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 73 27 0 100 21.6 21.5 20.3 -2.4 21.7 26.5 22.5 23.9 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 21.7 21.4 18.5 -2.5 21.0 26.1 22.5 23.8 25.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 21.9 21.8 19.7 -2.4 22.3 27.2 22.8 24.1 25.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 20.9 20.7 18.6 -2.4 21.9 27.0 21.7 23.0 24.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 76 24 0 100 21.7 21.8 18.9 -2.3 22.7 27.3 22.7 24.1 25.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 22.2 21.7 19.6 -2.8 18.3 23.7 23.0 24.3 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 22.6 22.7 21.2 -1.9 25.7 29.8 23.3 24.6 25.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 73 27 0 100 22.4 22.4 19.2 -2.3 23.1 27.8 23.3 24.7 26.0 30 Nis 06700G01 75 25 0 100 21.7 21.6 21.1 -2.3 21.7 26.9 22.6 23.9 25.1 29 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 21.2 20.8 17.6 -2.7 19.5 24.9 22.1 23.4 24.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 74 26 0 100 21.9 21.9 21.5 -2.3 22.3 27.2 22.8 24.0 25.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 72 28 0 100 16.1 15.4 15.2 -2.8 18.1 23.7 17.0 18.5 19.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 75 25 0 100 21.8 21.6 21.1 -2.5 20.4 25.3 22.8 24.1 25.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 78 22 0 100 22.1 21.9 20.9 -2.5 20.0 25.3 23.1 24.4 25.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 22.4 22.3 21.4 -2.3 22.6 27.4 23.2 24.5 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 21.7 21.3 19.6 -2.7 19.8 25.1 22.5 23.8 25.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 21.9 21.6 20.0 -2.4 20.5 25.4 22.8 24.2 25.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 21.4 21.6 18.3 -1.9 26.7 30.8 22.1 23.4 24.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 75 25 0 100 21.6 21.4 20.8 -2.4 20.7 25.7 22.6 23.9 25.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 22.4 22.5 19.8 -2.0 24.4 28.8 23.3 24.6 25.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 16.1 15.6 16.7 -2.8 18.4 23.9 17.1 18.5 19.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 74 26 0 100 22.1 22.0 21.5 -2.3 21.8 26.7 23.0 24.3 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------