***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.05.2017.-04.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 24.6 23.7 24.4 -0.2 47.0 47.1 22.5 24.0 25.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 25.1 24.3 24.4 -0.1 48.6 48.1 22.8 24.4 25.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 24.9 24.0 24.6 -0.2 47.4 47.3 22.7 24.3 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 15.4 16.6 22.1 -0.4 44.4 45.0 15.7 17.0 18.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 23.1 24.2 22.5 -0.4 44.4 45.3 23.3 24.7 26.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 21.4 22.5 20.1 -0.4 43.8 44.7 21.7 23.0 24.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 22.3 24.0 24.4 -0.1 48.4 47.9 22.6 24.1 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 10.8 11.9 20.6 -0.5 43.3 44.4 11.1 12.4 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 24.5 23.7 22.9 -0.3 46.2 46.6 22.6 24.0 25.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 24.4 23.6 21.5 -0.3 45.5 46.1 22.6 23.9 25.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 22.8 24.0 22.2 -0.3 45.7 46.1 23.0 24.3 25.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 21.8 22.9 21.7 -0.4 44.0 44.8 22.1 23.3 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 22.8 23.9 20.9 -0.5 43.5 44.5 23.1 24.4 25.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 24.6 23.6 22.4 -0.5 43.9 44.9 22.6 24.1 25.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 23.6 24.8 23.1 -0.2 46.3 46.0 24.0 25.0 26.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 23.3 24.6 21.8 -0.4 45.2 45.7 23.6 24.9 26.2 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 22.1 23.7 24.2 -0.2 48.0 47.7 22.4 23.9 25.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 23.9 23.0 20.9 -0.4 44.8 45.7 22.0 23.4 24.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 24.5 23.8 24.4 -0.2 47.9 47.7 22.4 23.9 25.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 17.2 18.0 18.2 -0.7 41.0 42.7 17.4 18.8 20.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 24.8 23.9 23.8 -0.3 45.4 45.9 22.8 24.2 25.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 25.0 24.0 23.8 -0.4 45.1 45.6 22.8 24.4 25.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 24.8 24.0 24.2 -0.3 46.6 46.8 22.8 24.3 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 24.2 23.4 22.6 -0.4 45.5 46.1 22.3 23.7 25.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 22.8 23.9 22.5 -0.5 43.5 44.6 23.1 24.4 25.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 22.3 23.9 21.2 -0.1 48.8 47.8 22.7 24.0 25.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 24.7 23.8 23.5 -0.3 46.0 46.4 22.7 24.1 25.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 23.7 24.8 22.4 -0.3 45.7 45.7 24.0 25.1 26.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 19.1 18.0 19.9 -0.5 43.1 44.5 17.2 18.6 19.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 24.9 24.1 24.4 -0.2 47.8 47.5 22.7 24.2 25.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------