***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.05.2017.-11.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 23.0 23.2 22.8 -1.1 29.1 32.3 23.4 24.4 25.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 23.6 23.7 22.9 -1.0 31.7 34.6 23.8 24.7 25.5 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 23.4 23.5 22.9 -1.2 28.2 31.6 23.8 24.7 25.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 15.9 16.0 20.1 -1.3 24.6 28.6 16.5 17.3 18.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 23.5 23.5 20.8 -1.5 23.3 27.5 24.0 24.9 25.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 76 24 0 100 21.9 21.8 18.4 -1.6 20.5 25.5 22.5 23.3 24.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 23.1 23.3 22.8 -1.0 30.6 33.6 23.4 24.3 25.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 78 22 0 100 11.3 11.2 18.7 -1.6 20.9 25.6 11.9 12.8 13.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 23.0 23.0 21.4 -1.3 25.1 29.1 23.4 24.3 25.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 22.8 22.7 19.7 -1.5 22.9 27.3 23.3 24.2 25.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 72 28 0 100 23.2 23.2 20.7 -1.5 23.6 27.8 23.8 24.6 25.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 76 24 0 100 22.2 22.2 19.8 -1.5 22.7 27.2 22.7 23.5 24.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 76 24 0 100 23.3 23.3 19.7 -1.5 22.4 26.7 23.9 24.7 25.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 23.2 23.0 20.9 -1.5 23.1 27.2 23.6 24.5 25.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 24.0 24.2 21.9 -1.1 28.1 31.7 24.4 25.2 25.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 75 25 0 100 23.8 23.8 20.2 -1.5 23.5 27.8 24.4 25.2 26.0 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 22.9 23.1 22.6 -1.0 31.7 34.6 23.2 24.1 25.0 29 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 22.4 22.3 19.0 -1.6 22.2 26.8 22.9 23.7 24.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 23.1 23.2 22.9 -1.0 31.4 34.4 23.3 24.2 25.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 79 21 0 100 17.4 17.3 16.5 -1.7 19.5 24.5 18.1 19.0 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 23.2 23.1 22.3 -1.4 24.7 28.6 23.6 24.5 25.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 23.4 23.4 22.3 -1.2 28.8 32.1 23.7 24.6 25.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 23.5 23.6 22.8 -1.1 30.5 33.6 23.7 24.6 25.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 22.8 22.7 21.0 -1.4 24.0 28.3 23.2 24.0 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 23.2 23.3 21.2 -1.3 24.9 28.7 23.7 24.6 25.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 23.0 23.1 19.4 -1.1 28.2 32.1 23.3 24.1 24.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 23.1 23.2 22.0 -1.2 27.7 31.1 23.5 24.4 25.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 23.9 23.9 20.8 -1.3 25.2 29.3 24.3 25.1 25.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 75 25 0 100 17.4 17.2 18.1 -1.6 20.9 25.7 18.0 18.8 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 23.3 23.5 22.9 -1.1 30.3 33.3 23.6 24.5 25.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------