***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.05.2017.-21.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 8.2 12.1 12.6 66.7 46.7 40.6 7.8 13.5 21.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 5.6 8.0 11.6 63.0 44.5 38.3 5.1 9.6 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 17.0 14.5 14.6 78.2 53.1 45.8 7.7 13.2 20.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 15.5 17.3 18.9 100.8 62.6 50.2 6.7 12.0 19.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 15.8 18.3 18.8 101.8 63.3 52.6 5.8 11.5 20.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 14.4 19.8 24.3 122.9 70.3 59.6 6.7 11.4 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 4.8 5.8 9.9 52.9 37.6 32.7 4.7 9.2 15.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 29.9 32.8 29.0 131.4 73.1 62.3 12.1 19.0 27.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 6.8 16.8 20.2 110.1 65.7 55.7 6.5 11.0 16.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 22.3 23.4 28.5 128.6 72.0 61.5 7.4 12.7 19.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 12.7 17.9 22.8 122.5 70.3 57.3 4.8 9.4 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 12.5 17.6 22.4 124.4 70.9 58.9 5.9 10.0 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 16.1 17.3 24.7 128.9 72.4 60.9 5.4 9.3 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 17.2 23.6 25.9 117.6 68.4 60.0 6.5 12.9 21.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.2 11.4 18.3 117.0 68.8 52.3 2.8 5.9 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 14.8 19.5 21.5 118.0 68.7 56.6 6.9 11.9 18.3 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 5.1 6.5 10.5 56.2 39.7 35.2 4.8 9.3 15.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 21.9 24.3 29.8 132.9 73.6 64.1 7.1 12.3 19.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 16.3 12.4 13.3 71.3 49.5 42.8 7.3 12.6 19.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 22.7 27.7 32.8 146.4 77.5 68.3 8.3 13.5 20.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 14.3 14.1 16.8 92.3 58.7 50.0 5.9 10.8 17.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 15.0 10.1 12.5 66.1 46.2 40.2 6.1 11.4 18.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 14.4 13.4 15.7 82.7 55.0 48.5 6.7 11.7 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 16.7 22.1 24.0 117.7 68.5 58.9 7.8 13.4 20.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 17.0 14.3 16.2 77.0 52.9 43.1 7.6 13.3 20.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 12.7 17.8 22.0 122.4 70.2 58.1 5.0 9.5 15.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 7.5 11.6 14.1 68.8 48.0 40.4 7.0 12.3 19.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 11.6 15.2 20.7 117.3 68.6 54.6 5.5 9.3 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 27.1 31.5 31.0 140.2 75.8 67.3 11.9 18.0 25.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 7.1 10.7 11.7 63.2 45.1 38.8 7.3 12.6 19.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------