***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.05.2017.-28.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 14.3 15.5 22.5 134.6 74.0 60.9 5.4 8.6 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 16.1 16.0 18.8 124.2 71.0 58.5 4.8 8.7 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 15.0 16.1 20.9 127.3 71.9 60.0 4.3 8.1 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 7.7 20.2 21.9 119.0 69.5 55.4 7.2 12.1 18.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 14.0 17.1 20.8 114.4 67.6 55.2 7.4 11.5 16.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 12.4 13.9 21.8 104.4 63.0 53.1 4.8 9.2 15.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 11.1 16.3 19.4 127.9 72.1 58.4 4.6 8.4 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 23.0 27.5 21.3 111.4 66.4 54.1 11.2 18.3 27.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.7 13.9 21.3 115.8 68.1 55.1 4.5 8.1 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 15.6 19.0 22.4 113.1 67.1 54.3 7.6 12.4 18.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 6.3 13.9 21.0 111.6 66.1 53.6 6.2 9.7 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 12.8 15.6 19.8 111.0 66.2 54.1 5.4 9.7 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 4.6 13.5 19.2 100.4 62.0 49.5 4.8 9.2 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 22.0 24.7 27.6 138.1 75.0 61.4 7.1 12.4 19.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 12.4 18.8 21.0 128.3 72.3 57.2 5.5 9.8 15.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 4.7 13.3 20.3 109.7 65.7 53.0 4.8 8.5 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 3.3 11.7 18.4 123.2 70.6 56.7 3.0 5.9 10.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 13.6 18.1 24.9 117.5 68.6 56.4 5.5 10.2 16.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 16.2 16.4 19.2 126.0 71.6 59.8 5.3 9.1 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 14.6 16.9 22.9 108.5 64.9 53.2 6.7 11.3 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 9.2 12.4 21.1 123.7 70.8 57.4 4.8 7.6 11.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 19.4 19.2 18.5 125.3 71.3 58.6 5.1 9.7 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 11.9 12.6 20.9 131.7 73.2 61.2 3.6 6.4 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 13.0 18.2 24.0 124.0 70.8 57.9 5.9 10.2 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 8.6 12.5 24.5 132.1 73.3 60.3 4.2 6.9 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 12.6 15.7 20.7 112.8 66.7 55.6 5.6 9.8 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 14.7 16.6 25.1 138.8 75.2 61.7 5.5 8.9 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 11.7 15.5 20.6 118.9 69.5 55.1 5.4 9.2 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 21.1 28.4 26.0 119.1 69.1 56.1 9.9 16.8 26.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 14.0 14.6 20.1 130.0 72.7 60.3 4.1 7.5 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------