***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.05.2017.-04.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 8.4 20.2 17.0 100.7 64.5 48.5 8.2 13.7 21.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 15.6 18.8 15.7 102.4 65.5 49.4 6.7 12.1 19.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 18.9 22.0 16.3 99.5 64.4 48.9 8.5 14.7 22.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 11.1 25.9 17.9 102.5 65.1 52.2 10.9 17.7 26.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 8.3 20.0 17.9 109.7 67.2 54.2 8.1 13.1 19.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 16.1 18.3 20.8 107.1 64.6 52.0 9.0 13.5 18.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 12.3 15.7 16.0 104.3 66.3 49.8 3.7 8.4 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 14.4 29.7 18.1 96.1 61.7 50.4 14.1 22.4 32.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 7.8 17.8 18.3 105.9 65.8 52.8 7.8 12.3 17.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 9.0 17.7 19.1 96.0 61.7 50.0 8.8 13.7 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 14.1 16.8 15.9 103.4 65.0 52.7 5.9 10.7 17.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 14.3 16.6 16.6 103.1 64.5 53.4 6.7 11.2 17.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 14.2 17.4 19.9 111.5 67.2 54.6 6.7 11.3 17.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 22.9 26.5 21.2 97.8 63.2 51.4 9.4 17.5 28.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 13.2 15.6 15.4 96.7 64.5 50.3 4.5 9.4 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 14.9 18.5 18.3 112.2 67.6 54.9 7.1 11.8 17.7 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 8.3 20.2 14.5 99.5 64.3 48.7 7.8 13.7 21.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 20.1 21.4 20.6 93.5 60.4 50.9 10.9 16.8 24.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 17.2 21.5 15.7 102.0 65.3 50.2 6.3 12.8 22.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 9.0 17.3 20.9 94.5 59.9 49.9 8.8 13.7 19.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 15.3 17.9 16.8 100.3 64.6 50.5 6.9 11.9 18.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 16.7 19.5 14.9 100.1 64.3 50.7 5.4 11.6 20.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 16.1 19.6 15.7 99.8 64.8 51.7 7.2 12.9 20.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 20.8 23.6 19.3 99.2 63.4 52.2 10.5 17.0 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 16.5 18.6 17.5 94.4 62.8 50.5 6.9 12.6 20.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 11.4 15.3 18.5 113.9 68.0 55.1 4.3 8.4 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 15.4 16.9 17.5 95.6 62.7 48.8 7.1 12.0 18.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 14.0 17.1 17.8 106.3 66.5 52.6 6.2 10.8 16.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 23.5 24.5 20.5 93.1 59.8 50.7 13.4 19.9 27.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 14.9 18.7 16.5 104.7 66.2 49.6 6.4 11.4 18.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------