***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.06.2017.-11.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 7.1 19.0 16.9 92.9 60.3 47.0 6.7 13.3 22.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 17.9 17.5 14.2 86.0 58.5 45.7 7.3 13.5 21.6 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 8.4 19.6 16.6 91.7 59.8 46.6 7.8 14.5 23.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 17.1 16.4 16.2 86.0 58.2 46.4 6.4 12.4 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 6.5 13.9 15.4 80.3 56.2 45.0 5.7 11.3 19.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 17.3 16.9 19.2 88.5 57.3 47.4 8.3 13.9 21.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 7.8 16.1 13.2 81.2 56.7 43.8 7.9 13.5 20.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 25.0 24.6 19.3 89.3 58.3 49.6 12.5 20.1 29.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 16.6 15.4 16.3 82.1 56.4 45.0 7.1 12.8 20.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 17.4 16.1 19.7 85.5 56.8 47.8 6.3 12.6 21.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 14.6 13.5 14.8 80.4 56.2 46.8 5.7 10.9 18.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.2 12.2 15.8 85.2 57.4 48.3 4.1 9.1 16.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 13.9 15.4 18.4 93.9 61.0 50.6 5.6 10.8 18.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 23.2 23.2 21.3 93.0 59.5 45.5 10.1 17.7 27.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 11.9 12.4 14.3 86.6 59.8 45.5 4.4 8.7 15.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 13.0 12.7 15.9 85.7 58.2 48.7 4.6 9.5 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 8.0 20.0 13.8 89.4 60.1 45.8 6.9 14.2 24.6 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 8.5 17.6 22.1 91.1 58.4 48.7 8.0 13.9 21.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 6.9 16.9 15.4 89.3 59.5 46.2 6.0 12.1 21.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 7.5 18.5 23.1 101.0 61.9 52.6 6.7 12.7 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 6.1 14.7 16.2 86.6 58.5 45.5 5.3 10.9 19.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 18.3 19.9 15.4 93.4 61.5 48.2 7.2 13.8 22.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 7.4 16.9 16.6 90.9 59.8 45.0 7.1 12.8 20.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 10.1 20.4 19.3 90.6 58.6 46.0 9.4 16.2 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 6.7 17.9 18.3 93.3 60.5 47.7 6.1 12.4 21.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 12.8 14.7 16.4 99.6 63.0 52.1 4.7 9.4 16.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 6.9 19.3 17.9 92.3 60.0 46.8 6.7 13.6 23.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.8 10.7 15.9 86.6 58.9 46.9 3.6 7.7 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 22.1 22.4 22.7 96.4 60.1 50.1 8.9 16.5 26.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 9.3 19.0 14.8 87.2 58.5 46.1 8.5 15.1 23.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------