***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.05.2017.-11.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 72.9 70.2 69.0 97.6 55.3 49.8 48.9 64.9 82.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 67.3 62.1 60.4 92.2 51.6 47.5 47.9 60.9 74.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 75.5 73.8 68.4 98.3 55.8 50.5 52.3 67.9 85.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 53.7 80.9 74.9 101.9 58.6 52.0 55.2 71.6 89.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 72.2 72.0 72.9 101.1 57.9 52.3 51.0 65.0 80.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 48.5 71.0 86.1 105.2 60.5 54.3 49.2 62.0 76.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 38.9 54.6 58.4 89.3 49.1 45.3 41.0 55.3 71.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 108.9 114.1 87.7 107.5 62.3 56.5 86.3 101.8 118.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 64.1 65.4 76.1 102.9 59.1 53.1 49.0 59.3 70.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 75.0 78.5 89.7 105.8 61.1 55.3 55.2 68.6 83.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 62.7 64.7 74.5 104.8 60.3 54.4 46.4 57.3 69.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 62.0 65.4 74.6 105.9 61.3 55.3 44.2 56.4 69.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 61.5 66.2 82.2 108.5 63.1 56.2 45.0 56.4 68.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 93.7 101.9 96.0 110.7 64.6 57.8 71.1 86.7 103.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 35.4 60.0 69.0 107.1 62.3 52.9 36.2 49.1 63.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 62.6 65.7 75.9 106.2 61.4 54.8 43.9 56.3 70.0 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 40.9 58.2 57.1 89.9 50.0 46.5 41.9 58.6 77.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 77.9 82.2 97.4 108.4 63.0 56.8 61.6 72.9 84.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 74.2 71.2 63.6 95.6 54.2 49.8 51.5 67.1 83.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 83.6 81.3 99.7 112.4 66.1 59.6 58.1 69.4 81.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 63.6 63.4 70.8 100.2 57.5 51.6 44.8 57.3 70.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 75.4 70.5 61.4 94.3 53.4 49.7 50.5 67.1 85.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 65.0 65.0 68.9 100.1 57.4 52.3 47.7 59.7 72.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 81.6 84.7 86.6 107.4 62.3 55.9 67.8 77.5 87.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 69.0 68.4 76.5 98.4 56.1 50.7 49.6 63.2 77.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 59.6 66.5 77.6 112.4 65.6 58.6 41.2 53.5 67.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 70.7 69.0 74.6 97.8 55.4 50.0 50.8 64.4 79.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 38.9 59.6 74.9 107.0 62.1 54.0 39.7 50.7 62.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 99.3 107.1 100.2 112.0 65.7 58.7 78.6 92.7 107.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 70.0 65.4 63.1 94.6 53.1 48.3 49.0 62.8 78.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------