***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.05.2016.-22.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 100 0 0 100 10.1 8.4 9.6 -3.7 3.4 4.6 11.2 12.1 13.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 100 0 0 100 10.1 8.1 9.2 -3.7 2.3 3.2 11.2 12.1 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 100 0 0 100 11.3 9.4 9.8 -3.6 3.3 4.2 12.6 13.6 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 100 0 0 100 5.8 3.5 7.2 -3.6 4.0 4.8 7.4 8.7 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 100 0 0 100 8.9 7.6 8.1 -3.5 3.8 4.7 9.9 10.7 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 100 0 0 100 7.7 6.7 5.9 -3.0 6.4 7.5 8.6 9.4 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 100 0 0 100 9.9 7.9 9.3 -3.7 2.6 3.7 11.1 12.1 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 100 0 0 100 1.9 0.4 5.9 -2.9 5.1 6.3 3.1 4.2 5.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 100 0 0 100 9.7 8.1 8.5 -3.2 2.9 3.7 10.7 11.5 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 100 0 0 100 9.6 8.3 6.8 -3.1 3.8 4.8 10.5 11.3 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 100 0 0 100 9.5 8.1 8.1 -3.0 3.9 4.8 10.4 11.2 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 100 0 0 100 7.5 6.4 6.8 -3.0 4.9 6.0 8.4 9.2 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 100 0 0 100 9.0 7.9 7.2 -2.9 5.3 6.3 9.9 10.7 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 100 0 0 100 10.1 8.1 8.0 -3.3 2.3 3.2 11.1 12.0 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 100 0 0 100 10.6 9.2 9.4 -3.2 3.7 4.6 11.5 12.2 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 100 0 0 100 9.7 8.4 7.6 -3.0 5.0 6.1 10.8 11.6 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 100 0 0 100 10.3 8.2 9.0 -3.6 2.3 3.2 11.5 12.4 13.3 29 Palic 37000G16 100 0 0 100 8.0 6.5 6.1 -3.2 3.5 4.4 8.9 9.7 10.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 100 0 0 100 10.1 8.1 9.3 -3.7 2.3 3.2 11.3 12.2 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 100 0 0 100 4.0 3.0 4.3 -3.0 5.4 6.9 5.0 5.7 6.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 100 0 0 100 9.6 8.0 9.5 -3.4 3.3 4.2 10.6 11.5 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 100 0 0 100 9.5 7.5 9.2 -3.5 2.1 2.9 10.6 11.5 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 100 0 0 100 9.8 8.1 9.3 -3.4 2.7 3.5 10.9 11.7 12.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 100 0 0 100 9.6 7.9 8.1 -3.3 2.7 3.5 10.6 11.4 12.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 100 0 0 100 10.0 8.7 8.7 -3.8 4.1 5.3 11.1 11.9 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 98 2 0 100 8.6 7.7 6.2 -3.0 7.0 8.2 9.5 10.2 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 100 0 0 100 9.7 7.7 9.1 -3.8 3.8 5.2 11.1 12.2 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 100 0 0 100 8.7 7.6 8.1 -3.3 4.5 5.4 9.6 10.3 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 100 0 0 100 6.0 4.0 5.3 -3.1 3.6 4.7 7.3 8.4 9.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 100 0 0 100 10.1 8.1 9.5 -3.7 2.6 3.6 11.3 12.3 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------