***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.06.2016.-12.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 14.9 15.0 16.1 0.5 58.5 56.5 13.7 14.6 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 14.8 15.0 15.9 0.6 60.8 57.9 13.2 14.3 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 16.4 16.4 16.2 0.4 57.4 55.6 14.7 15.9 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.6 11.5 13.6 0.3 56.1 54.5 9.7 11.0 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 11.8 12.9 13.6 0.3 55.0 53.6 11.9 12.7 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 11.9 11.9 11.6 0.4 57.9 56.0 10.8 11.5 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 14.8 15.1 16.1 0.7 61.7 58.6 13.4 14.4 15.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 5.1 6.8 11.5 0.4 58.2 56.0 5.2 6.3 7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 12.8 14.0 13.8 0.3 56.0 54.2 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 12.5 13.8 12.4 0.3 56.8 54.9 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 12.4 13.6 13.0 0.3 56.2 54.6 12.5 13.3 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 11.8 11.8 12.3 0.4 58.0 56.0 10.7 11.5 12.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 13.3 13.3 11.8 0.4 58.3 56.0 12.2 13.0 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 13.2 14.7 13.9 0.3 57.1 54.8 13.4 14.3 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 13.6 14.8 14.9 0.4 57.0 55.1 13.7 14.5 15.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 14.1 14.1 12.6 0.4 57.7 55.7 12.9 13.7 14.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 15.0 15.4 15.9 0.7 62.3 58.8 13.6 14.6 15.6 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 11.3 12.6 11.8 0.4 57.6 55.3 11.4 12.3 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 14.7 14.8 15.9 0.5 59.3 56.9 13.4 14.3 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 7.1 8.3 9.4 0.4 58.6 56.0 7.2 7.9 8.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 14.1 14.1 15.3 0.4 56.8 55.0 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 14.2 14.4 15.6 0.6 60.1 57.1 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 14.3 14.4 15.7 0.4 58.1 55.9 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 12.6 14.1 13.7 0.4 57.2 55.1 12.8 13.7 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 14.4 14.4 14.7 0.5 58.7 56.7 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 12.7 12.7 11.5 0.4 58.1 56.1 11.6 12.4 13.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 14.6 14.8 15.4 0.5 59.3 57.0 13.1 14.2 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 13.0 12.9 13.9 0.3 56.4 54.6 11.9 12.7 13.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 9.2 11.0 11.1 0.4 57.4 55.3 9.4 10.5 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 15.1 15.2 16.1 0.6 59.9 57.3 13.6 14.6 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------