***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.05.2016.-12.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 12.1 12.0 13.4 -1.2 21.6 26.4 12.4 12.9 13.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 11.9 11.9 13.2 -1.0 24.2 28.7 12.2 12.8 13.3 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 13.5 13.4 13.5 -1.1 20.6 25.4 13.9 14.4 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 8.4 8.1 10.9 -1.2 18.5 23.9 8.8 9.4 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 10.6 10.4 11.3 -1.2 17.6 23.2 10.9 11.3 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 9.5 9.3 9.1 -1.0 19.5 25.1 9.7 10.1 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 12.1 12.1 13.4 -1.0 25.5 29.9 12.4 12.9 13.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 4.2 4.0 9.1 -0.9 23.5 29.0 4.4 4.9 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 11.6 11.4 11.6 -1.0 19.4 25.0 11.8 12.3 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 11.5 11.3 10.0 -0.9 21.4 27.1 11.7 12.1 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 11.3 11.1 10.9 -1.0 20.8 26.2 11.5 11.9 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 9.4 9.2 9.9 -1.0 21.7 27.1 9.6 10.1 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 10.8 10.6 9.7 -0.9 20.9 26.3 11.0 11.5 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 12.1 12.0 11.5 -1.0 20.9 26.2 12.4 12.9 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 12.4 12.2 12.5 -1.1 19.3 23.9 12.6 13.1 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 11.6 11.4 10.4 -1.0 20.6 25.9 11.8 12.3 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 12.3 12.4 13.2 -0.9 27.3 31.3 12.6 13.1 13.6 29 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 10.0 9.8 9.5 -0.9 21.4 27.0 10.2 10.7 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 12.0 12.0 13.2 -1.1 22.8 27.4 12.3 12.8 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 6.0 5.9 7.3 -0.9 23.0 29.0 6.2 6.6 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 11.6 11.5 12.9 -1.1 20.3 25.5 11.8 12.3 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 11.7 11.7 13.0 -0.9 25.5 29.6 11.9 12.4 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 11.6 11.5 13.1 -1.0 22.4 27.1 11.9 12.4 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 11.5 11.3 11.4 -1.0 20.5 25.7 11.7 12.3 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 11.7 11.5 12.2 -1.2 20.4 25.3 12.0 12.5 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 10.3 10.1 9.1 -1.0 19.8 25.5 10.5 10.9 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 12.0 11.8 12.8 -1.2 21.2 25.9 12.2 12.8 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 10.5 10.3 11.5 -1.1 19.3 24.3 10.7 11.2 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 8.4 8.2 8.7 -0.9 21.4 27.4 8.6 9.2 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 12.3 12.2 13.4 -1.1 23.3 27.9 12.5 13.0 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------