***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.05.2016.-22.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 100 0 0 100 19.3 18.2 18.9 -4.2 10.1 11.1 21.6 23.4 25.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 99 1 0 100 20.1 19.0 19.0 -4.1 10.3 11.3 22.2 23.9 25.5 30 Becej 27400G00 100 0 0 100 19.9 18.7 18.8 -4.4 9.8 10.7 22.2 23.9 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 100 0 0 100 12.7 11.5 15.8 -4.3 9.8 10.8 14.9 16.7 18.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 98 2 0 100 20.3 18.9 16.9 -4.5 9.6 10.7 22.4 24.2 25.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 98 2 0 100 19.3 18.0 14.6 -4.5 9.2 10.8 21.1 22.7 24.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 98 2 0 100 20.1 19.1 19.0 -4.0 10.7 11.7 22.0 23.6 25.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 100 0 0 100 8.5 7.2 14.5 -4.7 8.7 10.1 10.6 12.2 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 98 2 0 100 19.7 18.5 17.9 -4.4 10.0 11.0 21.8 23.6 25.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 98 2 0 100 19.7 18.4 15.6 -4.7 9.2 10.4 21.9 23.6 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 99 1 0 100 20.0 18.5 17.1 -4.7 8.9 10.1 22.1 23.8 25.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 99 1 0 100 19.3 18.0 15.6 -4.6 8.8 10.3 21.3 22.8 24.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 98 2 0 100 20.5 19.3 16.5 -4.5 9.2 10.7 22.5 24.1 25.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 100 0 0 100 19.6 18.7 17.6 -4.2 11.1 12.1 21.9 23.8 25.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 100 0 0 100 21.1 20.2 18.8 -4.1 10.1 11.0 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 98 2 0 100 20.8 19.5 16.5 -4.5 9.0 10.4 22.8 24.5 26.0 30 Nis 06700G01 98 2 0 100 19.8 18.9 18.8 -3.8 11.0 12.1 21.7 23.3 24.8 29 Palic 37000G16 99 1 0 100 19.2 17.9 14.7 -4.7 9.6 10.8 21.3 23.1 24.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 100 0 0 100 19.7 18.6 18.9 -4.2 9.9 10.9 21.8 23.4 24.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 99 1 0 100 14.5 13.3 12.6 -4.7 9.4 11.0 16.6 18.2 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 99 1 0 100 19.9 18.8 18.7 -4.4 10.3 11.2 22.1 23.8 25.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 100 0 0 100 19.9 19.0 18.8 -3.8 10.9 11.9 22.1 23.7 25.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 100 0 0 100 19.8 18.8 18.8 -4.1 10.3 11.2 22.0 23.8 25.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 100 0 0 100 19.3 18.2 17.3 -4.5 10.3 11.3 21.5 23.3 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 100 0 0 100 20.0 18.8 17.8 -4.2 10.0 11.0 22.1 23.8 25.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 97 3 0 100 20.0 18.9 15.0 -4.3 9.9 11.6 21.8 23.3 24.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 100 0 0 100 19.9 18.8 18.3 -4.2 9.9 10.9 22.0 23.7 25.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 100 0 0 100 20.6 19.5 17.0 -4.3 9.7 10.7 22.7 24.3 25.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 100 0 0 100 14.0 12.8 14.0 -4.7 9.6 10.9 16.3 18.1 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 99 1 0 100 20.0 18.9 19.0 -4.2 10.2 11.2 22.1 23.7 25.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------