***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.05.2016.-29.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 22.5 23.0 23.2 -1.0 35.7 39.6 22.8 24.3 25.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 23.0 23.8 23.2 -0.9 38.5 41.6 23.4 24.6 25.7 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 22.8 23.3 23.1 -1.2 34.1 38.0 23.2 24.5 25.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 15.3 15.5 20.3 -1.3 33.0 37.3 15.5 17.0 18.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 22.8 23.1 21.2 -1.3 33.0 37.3 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 21.0 21.2 18.7 -1.4 31.3 36.3 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 22.5 23.3 23.3 -0.8 39.3 42.6 22.8 24.1 25.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 10.3 10.8 19.1 -1.3 33.8 37.9 10.7 12.2 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 22.1 22.6 21.9 -1.2 34.2 38.2 22.5 23.9 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 22.0 22.4 20.1 -1.3 34.1 38.0 22.4 23.7 25.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 22.4 22.7 21.2 -1.4 32.7 36.9 22.7 24.1 25.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 21.2 21.5 20.1 -1.3 32.7 37.0 21.5 22.9 24.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 22.2 22.4 20.2 -1.5 31.1 36.1 22.6 24.0 25.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 22.8 23.4 21.7 -1.0 37.1 40.3 23.1 24.4 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 23.1 23.2 22.2 -1.4 30.6 34.8 23.4 24.7 26.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 22.8 23.1 20.6 -1.4 32.1 36.8 23.2 24.6 26.0 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 22.3 23.3 23.1 -0.7 41.4 44.0 22.6 23.9 25.2 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 21.6 22.1 19.5 -1.2 35.5 39.2 21.9 23.3 24.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 22.5 23.2 23.2 -0.9 37.6 40.8 22.9 24.1 25.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 16.4 17.1 17.2 -1.2 35.4 39.4 16.9 18.4 19.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 22.5 22.9 22.8 -1.3 33.6 37.6 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 22.8 23.7 22.9 -0.8 40.0 42.8 23.2 24.5 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 22.9 23.6 23.0 -0.9 37.8 40.8 23.2 24.5 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 22.1 22.7 21.5 -1.2 35.1 38.7 22.5 23.8 25.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 22.7 23.0 21.7 -1.2 33.7 38.0 22.9 24.2 25.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 21.6 21.9 19.3 -1.3 32.4 37.4 22.0 23.4 24.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 22.4 22.8 22.5 -1.0 35.3 39.5 22.7 24.0 25.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 23.0 23.2 21.0 -1.4 31.4 35.8 23.3 24.6 25.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 16.6 17.2 18.7 -1.1 35.9 39.6 16.9 18.4 19.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 22.7 23.4 23.2 -1.0 37.3 40.6 23.1 24.4 25.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------