***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.06.2016.-12.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 27.0 26.8 26.1 0.4 54.6 53.8 24.5 26.3 28.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 26.8 26.8 26.1 0.5 56.2 54.8 24.6 26.2 27.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 26.8 26.5 26.2 0.3 53.2 52.6 24.5 26.2 27.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 17.4 19.0 23.7 -0.1 48.5 48.9 17.6 19.1 20.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 24.5 26.6 24.2 0.0 50.1 50.1 24.9 26.6 28.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 23.3 25.1 21.7 0.0 50.1 49.7 23.6 25.1 26.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 26.4 26.6 26.3 0.7 58.5 56.4 24.2 25.8 27.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 12.6 14.5 22.4 0.1 51.4 50.7 12.9 14.4 15.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 23.9 26.0 24.4 0.1 51.4 51.1 24.2 25.9 27.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 23.9 26.0 23.1 0.1 52.0 51.3 24.1 25.8 27.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 24.5 26.5 23.9 0.1 50.7 50.4 24.8 26.4 27.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 23.3 25.2 23.4 0.0 50.0 49.7 23.7 25.2 26.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 24.6 26.4 22.6 0.0 49.8 49.7 24.9 26.4 27.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 26.7 26.4 24.2 0.3 54.5 53.2 24.3 26.0 27.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 25.5 26.7 24.5 -0.3 46.0 46.8 25.7 27.0 28.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 25.1 27.0 23.4 0.0 49.7 49.7 25.4 27.0 28.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 26.2 26.4 26.1 0.7 58.7 56.7 23.9 25.6 27.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 25.9 25.5 22.6 0.2 53.0 52.0 23.5 25.2 26.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 26.3 26.1 26.0 0.4 54.5 53.5 24.0 25.7 27.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 18.7 20.9 20.2 0.3 53.5 52.2 19.0 20.6 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 26.9 26.2 25.4 0.1 51.2 51.1 24.4 26.1 27.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 26.7 26.6 25.7 0.5 55.9 54.5 24.4 26.1 27.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 26.7 26.4 25.9 0.3 54.0 53.1 24.3 26.0 27.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 26.2 25.8 24.1 0.2 52.8 52.0 23.9 25.6 27.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 27.0 26.5 24.2 0.1 51.9 51.7 24.7 26.3 27.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 26.6 26.2 22.9 0.2 52.8 51.8 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 26.6 26.4 25.2 0.4 54.9 54.1 24.4 26.0 27.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 25.4 26.8 23.8 -0.2 46.7 47.4 25.6 27.0 28.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 18.2 20.7 21.7 0.3 53.4 52.3 18.6 20.3 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 26.6 26.5 26.1 0.5 55.7 54.4 24.4 26.0 27.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------