***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.05.2016.-12.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 23.2 23.1 23.2 -1.3 26.1 30.3 23.6 24.5 25.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 23.5 23.7 23.3 -1.2 29.4 33.1 23.9 24.8 25.6 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 23.5 23.3 23.2 -1.5 24.0 28.3 23.9 24.8 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 16.2 15.9 20.5 -1.6 21.4 25.7 16.6 17.5 18.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 23.8 23.5 21.3 -1.6 21.1 25.7 24.2 25.0 25.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 22.2 21.9 18.9 -1.6 19.4 24.9 22.7 23.5 24.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 23.2 23.4 23.4 -1.0 31.4 34.9 23.5 24.4 25.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 11.6 11.4 19.2 -1.6 20.9 26.0 12.1 12.9 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 23.2 22.9 21.8 -1.5 22.2 26.8 23.5 24.4 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 23.0 22.8 20.1 -1.6 21.2 26.1 23.5 24.3 25.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 23.5 23.2 21.1 -1.6 20.5 25.2 23.9 24.8 25.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 22.5 22.2 20.3 -1.6 20.8 25.8 22.9 23.6 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 23.5 23.3 20.2 -1.6 20.5 25.8 24.0 24.8 25.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 23.3 23.3 21.6 -1.3 25.3 29.7 23.7 24.6 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 24.1 23.9 22.2 -1.6 20.6 24.5 24.6 25.4 26.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 24.0 23.8 20.6 -1.6 20.5 25.5 24.5 25.3 26.1 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 22.9 23.3 23.2 -0.9 33.1 36.4 23.3 24.2 25.1 29 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 22.6 22.4 19.5 -1.5 22.1 27.3 23.0 23.8 24.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 23.0 23.1 23.2 -1.3 27.5 31.4 23.4 24.3 25.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 17.7 17.6 17.1 -1.5 22.6 28.0 18.2 19.1 19.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 23.4 23.1 22.7 -1.5 22.4 26.8 23.7 24.6 25.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 23.4 23.6 22.9 -1.1 30.7 34.3 23.8 24.7 25.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 23.5 23.5 23.1 -1.3 26.6 30.7 23.8 24.7 25.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 22.9 22.7 21.4 -1.5 22.6 27.5 23.3 24.1 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 23.5 23.3 21.7 -1.4 23.6 27.9 23.9 24.7 25.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 23.0 23.0 19.7 -1.4 23.7 28.9 23.5 24.2 25.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 23.2 23.2 22.5 -1.3 26.1 30.3 23.6 24.5 25.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 24.1 23.8 21.1 -1.7 20.0 24.3 24.5 25.3 26.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 17.6 17.5 18.7 -1.5 22.3 27.7 18.1 18.9 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 23.4 23.4 23.3 -1.2 28.1 31.9 23.7 24.6 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------