***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.05.2016.-29.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 3.7 9.2 16.1 96.2 62.6 50.3 3.6 6.3 10.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.8 10.7 12.8 80.5 57.4 45.7 4.4 8.4 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 9.5 10.1 16.0 94.0 61.4 48.5 4.0 7.2 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 5.6 17.1 17.5 112.2 67.4 54.0 5.2 9.8 16.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 5.5 15.8 19.2 126.0 71.3 57.5 5.3 9.0 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 6.4 16.5 20.2 106.3 64.7 53.5 5.9 10.7 17.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 3.5 8.6 12.6 82.9 57.9 45.3 3.2 6.5 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 26.1 29.9 18.3 105.0 64.2 52.6 13.3 21.3 31.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 4.9 13.9 18.4 116.0 68.4 55.1 4.6 8.2 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 14.9 19.1 20.3 114.3 68.1 55.9 7.1 11.9 18.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 6.4 15.5 18.9 111.7 66.4 55.8 6.0 10.1 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 13.6 15.1 16.6 102.2 63.3 52.8 5.6 10.2 16.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 13.1 16.9 20.5 113.4 67.6 56.9 4.6 9.3 16.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 6.8 16.9 20.0 102.7 62.6 49.3 6.9 11.9 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 4.8 14.5 16.8 107.6 65.9 53.3 4.3 8.5 14.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 6.5 15.0 17.7 108.1 65.4 53.8 6.3 10.2 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 3.6 8.1 12.2 79.4 56.5 44.4 3.2 6.4 11.2 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 7.2 17.0 21.2 108.8 65.3 51.0 7.3 11.7 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 3.9 8.5 13.2 80.4 57.0 45.5 3.7 6.8 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 15.2 17.8 21.3 109.6 65.5 52.7 7.5 12.1 18.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.4 10.0 16.8 103.1 64.5 51.8 3.4 6.3 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 5.2 10.6 12.2 72.9 52.4 40.6 5.2 9.8 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.1 8.0 14.8 87.1 59.0 48.0 3.3 6.1 9.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 7.1 16.3 19.8 105.2 65.0 51.0 6.7 11.1 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 8.5 10.1 19.0 104.9 65.1 53.4 3.9 6.7 10.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 5.1 12.7 16.1 93.7 58.6 47.9 5.2 9.7 15.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.9 9.4 17.2 94.2 61.0 49.5 3.4 6.6 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 5.3 15.0 17.1 111.8 67.1 54.2 5.3 9.3 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 13.8 26.7 22.2 108.8 65.2 51.8 13.8 19.9 27.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 3.4 8.4 14.4 88.8 60.4 48.2 3.0 5.9 10.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------