***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.06.2016.-12.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 6.9 21.3 12.6 97.3 62.9 45.5 6.8 13.7 23.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 7.7 20.3 12.0 95.7 61.6 45.1 7.7 14.2 23.2 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 6.9 18.9 10.9 89.2 59.0 41.9 7.5 14.1 23.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 8.7 26.3 13.6 122.2 70.7 50.0 8.0 14.4 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 8.3 19.7 10.8 97.8 63.0 46.5 7.8 13.6 21.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 19.2 24.5 15.5 112.8 67.6 54.4 8.3 14.8 23.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 7.1 18.6 12.1 94.7 61.5 44.8 7.4 13.4 21.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 10.4 25.5 15.1 100.9 63.0 48.2 10.6 18.0 27.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 17.7 17.8 11.2 88.9 59.8 45.7 7.3 13.3 21.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 7.5 19.3 14.5 93.5 60.3 46.5 6.7 13.5 23.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 5.7 16.4 10.7 98.5 62.7 46.8 5.6 10.8 18.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 5.4 16.6 12.7 103.6 64.4 49.6 4.9 10.0 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 7.0 21.8 13.9 111.1 67.5 52.4 6.1 12.1 20.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 9.4 16.6 13.7 75.6 50.7 40.5 9.5 16.2 25.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 4.5 22.2 14.3 140.5 75.4 53.3 4.0 8.7 15.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 5.5 17.3 12.2 109.6 66.8 50.2 5.1 9.9 16.9 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 7.1 21.4 12.2 95.8 62.0 45.7 7.1 14.1 24.3 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 9.8 18.3 16.3 90.1 58.3 46.6 9.8 15.1 21.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 7.4 20.8 11.8 94.4 60.8 44.4 7.9 14.7 24.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 18.5 19.5 16.9 96.3 61.3 48.8 7.2 13.6 22.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 6.9 17.4 10.9 91.2 60.9 44.2 6.5 12.3 20.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 8.6 20.7 13.0 98.0 62.6 47.2 9.1 15.0 22.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 5.6 15.4 11.2 88.3 57.7 42.4 6.8 12.2 19.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 7.9 17.0 12.9 82.8 54.5 42.5 8.4 14.9 23.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 5.7 19.8 14.1 104.9 65.6 48.3 5.4 11.2 20.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 13.9 17.6 12.2 104.8 65.9 51.9 4.7 9.8 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 5.7 18.9 13.8 96.8 62.8 46.6 5.6 11.8 21.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 4.9 17.8 13.6 125.8 71.8 51.0 4.3 8.6 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 9.7 20.3 16.1 87.7 57.0 46.2 8.7 16.3 26.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 9.1 22.5 11.8 94.2 61.2 44.4 9.4 16.4 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------