***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.05.2016.-12.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 74.6 66.6 55.9 90.1 49.6 45.6 52.3 67.0 83.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 48.6 58.1 48.6 81.9 43.7 41.6 50.2 63.1 77.1 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 53.8 71.4 55.5 90.8 50.6 46.5 54.7 70.7 88.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 81.3 85.9 66.6 105.4 61.0 54.9 58.6 74.4 91.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 74.2 74.7 62.0 102.2 58.6 53.0 53.6 67.2 81.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 71.3 75.6 75.9 107.7 62.3 57.1 53.3 65.7 79.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 40.8 52.3 48.9 83.8 44.6 42.3 43.5 56.7 71.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 108.4 115.4 76.4 110.1 64.2 58.8 85.4 101.0 117.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 68.1 66.7 63.0 98.4 55.5 50.9 52.5 62.9 74.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 76.6 79.6 77.2 105.5 60.8 55.7 56.3 70.0 84.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 63.9 64.4 61.0 102.4 58.4 53.4 48.1 58.6 70.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 63.4 67.1 64.3 107.3 62.1 56.9 45.0 57.2 70.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 65.8 70.3 70.7 109.4 63.7 56.8 48.1 59.8 72.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 68.2 85.7 70.8 90.0 48.4 45.5 71.2 87.3 104.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 59.6 67.0 63.0 111.7 65.1 56.5 40.3 53.5 67.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 63.4 64.1 62.1 103.1 59.0 53.6 44.2 56.9 70.6 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 40.3 52.3 47.9 82.5 43.2 40.9 42.6 58.9 77.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 79.7 80.2 83.2 103.2 58.5 54.3 63.0 74.3 85.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 53.4 67.0 50.4 83.9 45.6 42.9 55.4 71.0 88.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 76.1 83.0 87.1 111.8 65.9 60.0 59.1 71.0 83.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 66.7 62.7 58.9 94.1 52.8 48.3 48.0 60.4 73.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 49.4 61.7 51.1 83.3 45.0 41.5 50.7 66.7 84.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 47.1 59.9 53.6 88.2 48.8 45.1 49.1 60.7 73.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 65.8 80.1 69.5 95.4 52.6 49.2 67.4 78.3 89.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 69.2 65.9 65.3 94.0 52.4 48.7 51.6 64.2 77.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 70.8 62.9 62.1 106.1 61.4 56.6 41.2 53.5 67.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 71.3 64.6 61.1 90.1 49.0 45.6 52.3 65.2 79.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 57.1 61.6 65.5 108.7 63.1 55.7 43.1 53.1 63.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 100.1 101.6 84.2 104.3 59.5 55.2 78.7 93.0 108.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 49.7 63.0 51.3 86.3 47.5 44.2 51.8 65.1 79.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------