***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.05.2021.-30.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 10.9 12.0 14.2 -0.4 43.7 45.3 11.3 12.4 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 10.9 11.6 13.6 -0.8 36.3 40.0 11.4 12.4 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 12.8 13.6 14.1 -0.5 41.0 43.3 13.1 14.2 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 7.2 8.8 11.8 0.0 49.1 48.7 7.6 8.8 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 9.6 10.7 12.1 -0.2 46.4 47.3 9.9 10.9 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 8.4 9.5 9.7 0.0 49.4 49.3 8.6 9.5 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 10.9 11.7 13.7 -0.7 37.9 40.9 11.4 12.4 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 2.9 4.0 9.3 -0.4 42.8 44.0 3.3 4.5 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 10.4 11.3 12.1 -0.3 42.8 44.9 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 10.3 11.2 10.2 -0.4 42.2 44.1 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 10.1 11.1 11.5 -0.2 45.1 46.0 10.4 11.4 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 8.3 9.3 10.4 -0.3 44.9 45.4 8.7 9.6 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 9.7 10.5 10.2 -0.3 44.3 45.6 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 11.2 11.7 11.5 -0.6 36.7 40.6 11.5 12.5 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 11.4 12.5 13.3 -0.1 48.7 48.2 11.6 12.5 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 10.5 11.6 11.0 -0.2 45.6 46.7 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 11.1 11.9 13.3 -0.8 36.8 40.1 11.6 12.7 13.6 29 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 8.8 9.7 9.5 -0.4 41.9 43.8 9.2 10.1 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 11.0 11.6 13.6 -0.8 36.1 40.0 11.4 12.4 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 4.8 6.0 7.7 -0.2 46.4 46.5 5.2 6.2 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 10.4 11.4 13.4 -0.3 44.3 45.8 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 10.6 11.1 13.3 -0.8 35.2 39.2 11.0 12.0 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 10.7 11.3 13.4 -0.8 35.6 39.6 11.1 12.1 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 10.5 11.3 11.6 -0.5 39.9 42.6 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 10.8 11.9 13.2 -0.2 47.1 47.8 11.0 12.0 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 9.1 10.2 9.7 -0.1 47.9 47.9 9.4 10.3 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 11.0 12.1 13.7 -0.2 45.6 46.6 11.3 12.3 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 9.6 10.6 12.2 0.0 49.0 48.5 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 7.2 8.2 8.8 -0.4 41.7 43.6 7.7 8.8 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 11.1 11.8 13.9 -0.7 37.3 40.7 11.5 12.6 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------