***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.06.2021.-13.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 15.0 14.3 15.7 -0.4 43.4 45.2 13.8 14.7 15.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 13.0 13.7 15.5 -0.5 40.9 43.5 13.2 14.3 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 16.4 15.6 16.0 -0.3 45.4 46.8 14.8 15.9 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 11.6 10.9 13.4 -0.2 46.3 47.8 9.8 11.1 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 13.1 12.6 13.3 -0.3 45.1 46.7 12.0 12.8 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 11.9 11.5 11.3 -0.1 47.1 47.9 10.9 11.6 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 13.3 13.9 15.5 -0.6 40.5 43.2 13.5 14.5 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 6.8 6.4 11.2 0.0 49.9 49.7 5.3 6.4 7.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 14.1 13.6 13.5 -0.2 46.4 47.4 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 13.9 13.5 12.0 0.0 49.1 49.1 12.7 13.6 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 13.7 13.3 12.9 -0.2 46.7 47.4 12.7 13.5 14.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 11.9 11.5 12.1 -0.1 48.4 48.6 10.9 11.6 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 13.4 12.9 11.4 -0.2 45.5 46.3 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 14.7 14.3 13.5 -0.1 47.7 48.3 13.5 14.4 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 14.9 14.5 14.8 -0.1 47.4 48.4 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 12.8 13.7 12.3 -0.2 46.4 47.2 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 13.5 14.3 15.3 -0.4 42.5 44.9 13.7 14.7 15.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 12.7 12.4 11.3 0.0 50.9 50.4 11.5 12.3 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 14.7 14.0 15.6 -0.4 42.6 44.8 13.4 14.4 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 8.3 8.1 9.1 0.1 51.9 51.4 7.2 8.0 8.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 14.2 13.7 15.0 -0.2 46.6 47.7 13.0 13.8 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 12.8 13.6 15.2 -0.3 43.7 45.8 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 14.3 13.7 15.5 -0.3 44.8 46.3 13.0 14.0 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 14.2 13.8 13.3 -0.1 48.6 48.9 12.9 13.9 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 14.4 13.7 14.2 -0.4 43.6 45.5 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 12.8 12.3 11.2 -0.2 46.5 47.5 11.7 12.5 13.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 14.6 13.7 15.0 -0.4 43.4 45.2 13.1 14.1 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 13.1 12.7 13.8 -0.1 48.6 49.2 12.1 12.8 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 11.0 10.7 10.7 0.1 51.9 51.3 9.4 10.6 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 13.4 14.1 15.7 -0.5 40.9 43.5 13.6 14.7 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------