***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.05.2021.-23.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 77 23 0 100 20.2 20.1 20.6 -2.5 21.6 24.2 21.5 23.3 24.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 92 8 0 100 20.5 20.0 20.0 -3.3 15.2 17.4 22.2 23.8 25.4 30 Becej 27400G00 76 24 0 100 20.9 20.7 20.5 -2.6 21.4 23.9 22.1 23.8 25.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 14.2 14.3 18.0 -1.8 28.4 30.8 14.9 16.7 18.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 21.5 21.6 19.1 -2.1 26.2 28.8 22.4 24.2 25.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 20.5 20.6 17.1 -1.8 29.4 32.0 21.0 22.6 24.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 91 9 0 100 20.4 19.9 19.8 -3.2 15.1 17.3 22.0 23.6 25.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 10.0 10.2 17.0 -1.9 27.8 30.4 10.7 12.3 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 21.0 20.9 20.1 -2.1 25.8 28.7 21.7 23.5 25.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 21.2 21.1 18.0 -2.0 26.6 29.5 21.9 23.6 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 21.4 21.5 19.7 -1.9 28.5 30.9 22.0 23.8 25.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 20.6 20.8 18.4 -1.8 29.0 31.6 21.2 22.8 24.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 22.1 22.0 19.4 -1.9 29.6 32.1 22.4 24.0 25.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 76 24 0 100 20.8 20.4 19.1 -2.5 19.7 23.0 22.0 23.8 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 22.4 22.5 21.2 -1.8 29.3 31.5 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 22.3 22.3 19.2 -1.9 28.9 31.3 22.7 24.4 26.0 30 Nis 06700G01 92 8 0 100 20.1 19.5 19.5 -3.3 13.4 15.6 21.8 23.3 24.7 29 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 20.7 20.6 17.0 -2.1 25.3 28.5 21.4 23.1 24.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 88 12 0 100 20.2 19.9 20.1 -3.1 16.5 18.7 21.8 23.4 24.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 15.9 16.0 14.9 -2.0 26.2 29.1 16.7 18.3 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 21.1 21.0 20.7 -2.2 24.4 27.2 22.0 23.7 25.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 91 9 0 100 20.4 19.8 19.5 -3.1 14.0 16.2 22.1 23.7 25.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 81 19 0 100 20.7 20.3 20.2 -2.9 18.3 20.7 22.1 23.8 25.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 70 30 0 100 20.5 20.4 19.2 -2.3 22.9 26.0 21.5 23.2 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 75 25 0 100 20.7 20.6 19.4 -2.4 22.0 24.6 22.0 23.7 25.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 21.3 21.7 18.1 -1.5 33.1 35.3 21.7 23.2 24.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 80 20 0 100 20.5 20.4 19.8 -2.6 20.0 22.7 21.9 23.5 25.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 22.2 22.5 19.5 -1.6 31.1 33.2 22.7 24.3 25.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 15.6 15.6 16.3 -2.0 25.7 28.9 16.4 18.1 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 90 10 0 100 20.4 20.1 20.2 -3.1 16.8 19.1 22.1 23.7 25.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------