***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.05.2021.-06.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 24.8 24.1 25.6 0.0 49.6 48.9 22.6 24.1 25.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 25.4 24.4 25.3 -0.3 46.5 46.7 23.1 24.7 26.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 25.3 24.7 25.9 0.1 50.6 49.5 23.1 24.6 26.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 17.9 17.7 23.5 0.3 53.9 52.1 16.3 17.5 18.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 25.8 25.1 23.6 -0.1 49.4 48.6 23.8 25.2 26.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 24.2 23.8 21.1 0.1 51.3 50.3 22.5 23.7 24.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 25.0 24.1 25.3 -0.3 46.6 46.8 22.8 24.4 25.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 11.7 13.1 22.0 0.1 51.3 49.8 11.9 13.1 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 22.9 24.4 23.8 -0.1 49.2 48.4 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 22.8 24.5 22.6 0.1 50.7 49.4 23.1 24.5 25.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 25.5 24.9 23.4 -0.1 49.0 48.4 23.7 25.0 26.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 24.4 23.9 23.3 0.1 50.6 49.6 22.8 23.9 25.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 25.6 25.1 22.4 0.0 50.3 49.6 24.0 25.1 26.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 25.1 24.4 23.5 -0.1 49.2 48.1 23.0 24.5 26.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 25.8 25.7 24.7 0.4 54.3 52.7 24.4 25.4 26.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 26.1 25.7 23.1 0.1 50.8 49.9 24.5 25.7 26.8 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 22.4 24.1 25.3 -0.2 48.1 48.0 22.7 24.3 25.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 24.5 24.1 22.1 0.2 52.7 50.6 22.5 23.9 25.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 25.0 24.1 25.5 -0.2 47.6 47.4 22.7 24.3 25.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 18.0 19.8 19.6 0.5 55.7 52.6 18.2 19.4 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 25.3 24.8 25.0 0.1 51.6 50.3 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 25.5 24.7 25.1 -0.1 48.9 48.4 23.2 24.8 26.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 25.3 24.6 25.5 -0.1 48.8 48.1 23.1 24.7 26.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 24.8 24.2 23.6 0.1 50.8 49.3 22.7 24.2 25.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 25.4 24.8 23.8 0.1 51.0 49.9 23.3 24.8 26.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 25.1 24.8 22.8 0.1 51.3 50.4 23.6 24.7 25.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 25.1 24.4 24.6 0.0 49.6 48.9 23.0 24.4 25.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 25.9 25.8 23.8 0.4 54.2 52.5 24.4 25.5 26.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 19.7 19.4 21.1 0.3 53.3 50.9 17.8 19.1 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 25.2 24.3 25.4 -0.3 46.7 46.8 23.0 24.5 26.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------