***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.06.2021.-13.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 27.1 26.4 26.4 -0.1 49.3 49.9 24.8 26.5 28.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 24.3 25.6 25.9 -0.5 43.8 45.6 24.6 26.2 27.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 26.8 26.2 26.6 0.0 49.8 50.2 24.6 26.2 27.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 19.9 19.7 24.4 0.3 54.5 53.5 17.8 19.3 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 27.2 26.6 24.6 0.0 50.4 50.7 25.0 26.6 28.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 25.8 25.2 21.9 0.0 50.2 50.5 23.7 25.2 26.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 26.5 25.3 25.9 -0.5 43.8 45.8 24.3 25.8 27.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 15.0 14.6 22.9 0.1 51.6 51.2 12.9 14.4 15.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 26.6 25.9 24.7 0.0 50.0 50.5 24.3 25.9 27.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 26.4 25.9 23.4 0.1 51.2 51.1 24.2 25.8 27.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 27.1 26.5 24.4 0.0 50.5 50.6 24.8 26.4 27.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 25.9 25.4 24.3 0.1 51.4 51.1 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 27.1 26.5 23.2 0.0 50.2 50.4 24.9 26.5 27.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 26.5 25.6 24.1 -0.2 47.8 48.7 24.2 25.8 27.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 27.8 27.6 25.5 0.3 54.3 53.4 25.8 27.2 28.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 27.7 27.2 24.0 0.1 51.6 51.4 25.5 27.1 28.5 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 23.7 25.1 25.8 -0.5 44.4 45.9 24.0 25.6 27.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 25.8 25.3 22.8 0.1 51.6 51.5 23.5 25.2 26.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 26.3 25.2 26.1 -0.4 45.3 46.7 24.0 25.6 27.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 21.3 21.0 20.3 0.3 53.3 52.3 19.0 20.7 22.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 26.8 26.4 25.8 0.2 52.2 52.0 24.5 26.1 27.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 26.7 25.6 25.6 -0.4 45.3 46.6 24.4 26.0 27.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 26.6 25.6 26.2 -0.3 46.7 47.8 24.3 25.9 27.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 26.0 25.4 24.3 0.0 50.1 50.4 23.8 25.4 27.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 27.0 26.5 24.7 0.1 51.5 51.5 24.8 26.4 27.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 24.4 26.1 23.5 0.0 49.8 50.0 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 26.6 26.0 25.4 -0.1 49.3 49.9 24.5 26.1 27.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 27.7 27.6 24.7 0.4 54.7 53.7 25.8 27.2 28.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 21.1 20.5 21.7 0.1 51.4 51.3 18.6 20.4 22.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 26.6 25.5 26.0 -0.4 44.6 46.4 24.4 26.0 27.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------