***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.05.2021.-13.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 23.5 24.0 24.3 -0.6 39.7 41.3 23.7 24.6 25.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 23.5 23.9 23.9 -1.2 31.7 34.6 24.0 24.9 25.7 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 23.7 24.3 24.5 -0.6 40.1 41.6 24.0 24.8 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 17.9 17.5 22.1 -0.1 48.6 48.2 16.8 17.6 18.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 25.5 24.8 22.6 -0.4 42.8 43.7 24.3 25.1 25.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 23.9 23.4 20.3 -0.2 46.3 46.4 22.8 23.6 24.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 23.2 23.5 23.8 -1.2 31.7 34.6 23.6 24.5 25.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 13.3 12.8 20.8 -0.3 45.2 45.3 12.2 13.0 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 24.8 24.1 23.1 -0.4 42.4 43.4 23.6 24.5 25.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 24.7 24.1 21.5 -0.3 44.3 44.8 23.6 24.4 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 25.2 24.6 22.8 -0.4 44.1 44.6 24.0 24.8 25.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 24.0 23.5 22.2 -0.3 45.3 45.4 23.0 23.7 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 25.2 24.7 21.9 -0.3 44.5 44.7 24.1 24.9 25.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 23.5 24.0 22.4 -0.7 37.5 39.8 23.8 24.6 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 25.7 25.4 24.0 -0.1 48.9 48.4 24.7 25.5 26.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 25.7 25.2 22.3 -0.3 45.4 45.5 24.6 25.4 26.2 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 22.9 23.3 23.6 -1.1 31.5 34.8 23.4 24.3 25.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 24.2 23.6 20.8 -0.3 44.7 45.2 23.1 23.9 24.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 23.1 23.5 24.1 -1.1 33.7 36.4 23.5 24.4 25.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 19.5 19.1 18.5 -0.2 47.2 46.8 18.4 19.2 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 25.1 24.4 24.1 -0.4 43.6 44.4 23.8 24.7 25.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 23.4 23.8 23.5 -1.1 32.6 36.0 23.8 24.7 25.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 23.6 24.0 24.1 -0.9 36.0 38.3 23.9 24.7 25.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 23.2 23.8 22.6 -0.5 41.3 42.7 23.4 24.2 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 23.8 24.4 22.9 -0.5 41.4 42.5 24.0 24.8 25.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 24.6 24.2 21.6 -0.2 46.5 46.4 23.6 24.3 25.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 23.5 24.0 23.5 -0.7 38.7 40.4 23.7 24.5 25.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 25.7 25.4 22.9 0.0 50.2 49.6 24.7 25.4 26.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.4 18.8 19.9 -0.3 44.9 45.3 18.2 19.0 19.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 23.4 23.8 24.0 -1.1 33.2 35.8 23.8 24.7 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------