***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.05.2021.-23.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 26.3 28.8 22.2 129.5 72.5 65.8 8.2 14.8 23.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 17.1 20.0 19.8 143.1 76.0 69.2 5.7 9.8 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 23.2 27.5 21.6 143.6 76.2 67.7 9.2 14.6 21.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 17.8 25.4 22.9 122.7 70.3 61.9 8.5 14.7 22.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 27.4 31.9 23.0 135.9 74.3 66.6 7.9 15.0 24.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 14.6 18.7 21.6 114.6 67.1 55.5 6.9 11.6 18.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 18.2 21.2 19.8 139.5 75.2 68.3 5.6 10.0 16.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 25.5 33.0 25.2 117.8 68.2 60.5 13.8 21.6 31.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 20.2 24.2 23.5 141.4 75.8 68.2 6.3 11.4 18.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 44 56 100 25.2 28.5 27.8 132.3 73.2 65.2 10.3 16.3 23.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 12.5 21.4 22.9 135.8 74.2 65.4 5.5 10.2 16.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 14.3 19.5 20.0 120.0 69.1 60.9 6.8 11.7 17.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 13.2 18.6 20.6 123.1 70.6 59.9 6.3 10.6 16.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 30.1 39.6 28.5 168.6 81.6 73.4 8.6 15.4 24.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 11.1 13.3 16.2 99.6 64.1 52.5 5.0 8.9 14.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 15.2 23.0 21.3 128.7 72.2 62.9 7.4 12.5 19.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 15.0 20.0 21.2 160.7 79.9 71.5 4.2 7.8 12.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 44 56 100 23.0 27.5 28.7 140.0 75.5 66.5 9.3 14.9 21.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 22.6 27.4 20.6 147.6 77.1 70.3 6.5 11.8 19.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 16.9 21.5 25.8 115.1 67.0 59.2 9.9 15.0 21.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 22.2 27.3 22.8 143.2 76.2 68.0 7.8 13.2 20.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 16.1 19.9 21.3 160.9 80.0 72.4 6.4 10.0 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 21.6 26.2 22.4 160.9 79.9 72.8 7.4 12.0 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 26.1 33.7 25.9 156.4 79.2 69.0 9.3 15.5 23.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 22.5 26.4 26.3 139.0 75.1 67.5 7.1 12.7 20.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 12.8 13.7 14.3 95.6 60.7 50.9 5.9 10.1 15.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 26.0 28.5 24.1 130.3 72.8 66.1 8.8 15.2 23.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 13.0 16.7 20.2 110.9 66.9 57.3 6.8 11.0 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 44 56 100 31.9 37.3 28.0 135.9 74.4 65.6 12.6 20.4 30.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 20.8 23.9 19.8 134.8 74.0 66.9 7.5 12.7 19.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------