***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.05.2021.-30.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 2.8 8.1 14.0 94.9 62.8 46.2 2.4 5.2 9.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 3.9 13.2 13.9 104.9 65.8 44.0 3.5 7.4 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.9 11.4 16.4 108.6 66.6 46.9 3.6 6.8 11.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 4.9 14.3 17.5 98.0 63.0 41.8 4.9 9.3 15.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 3.9 11.8 18.3 107.6 66.1 44.5 4.1 7.3 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 5.5 12.6 17.4 83.0 54.3 38.0 6.3 11.1 17.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 3.3 11.3 13.0 99.2 64.0 43.8 2.9 6.6 12.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 11.2 25.7 17.8 95.8 61.6 43.3 11.3 19.0 28.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 3.5 11.5 18.2 102.3 64.1 42.4 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 5.3 14.7 19.0 99.0 63.1 42.3 5.6 10.0 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 4.6 14.1 18.8 108.3 65.9 44.7 4.3 8.4 14.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 5.4 13.3 16.1 95.8 61.6 43.8 5.2 9.4 15.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 4.0 13.5 19.2 103.6 64.5 45.3 3.8 8.0 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 7.1 20.1 21.4 107.1 65.6 40.6 7.6 13.1 20.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 3.8 13.5 17.1 102.1 65.4 45.5 3.8 7.8 13.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 5.7 14.0 17.9 98.8 62.9 42.8 5.8 9.9 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 3.3 11.5 13.3 105.8 65.9 45.8 3.0 6.4 11.5 29 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 6.3 13.9 19.2 90.3 58.1 39.2 6.8 11.3 17.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 3.6 11.9 15.0 107.2 66.4 43.1 3.5 6.9 11.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 7.8 17.0 20.5 99.2 62.0 45.9 7.8 12.7 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 3.6 9.2 16.7 100.9 63.7 43.4 3.6 6.3 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 5.0 17.6 15.5 116.8 69.1 47.1 4.4 9.0 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 3.2 10.1 17.2 111.4 67.4 41.6 3.6 6.2 9.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 6.2 14.6 19.6 100.8 62.4 40.4 6.8 10.8 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 3.6 9.1 16.7 92.0 59.9 44.4 4.1 6.9 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 5.1 14.7 17.7 106.2 65.2 46.7 5.2 9.4 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 2.8 7.6 14.8 87.6 58.8 44.3 3.0 5.6 9.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 4.3 12.2 17.3 98.7 64.0 42.3 4.5 8.1 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 9.6 19.7 20.3 93.8 59.4 42.4 9.9 15.7 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 3.1 9.8 14.0 101.6 64.6 43.2 2.9 5.9 10.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------