***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.05.2021.-06.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 8.3 18.2 12.6 81.2 56.6 39.0 9.0 15.3 23.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 7.1 15.8 12.0 79.5 55.6 39.0 7.6 13.5 21.2 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 9.7 21.8 13.2 80.2 56.2 38.4 10.2 18.1 28.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 9.4 23.9 15.7 90.9 60.2 40.4 10.7 18.1 27.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 7.7 18.5 15.0 92.3 60.9 41.4 8.9 14.2 20.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 7.0 15.1 17.1 85.1 55.7 40.9 7.7 12.9 19.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 6.1 14.5 11.9 80.8 56.1 39.3 6.5 12.0 19.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 16.8 27.7 17.1 87.7 58.2 42.7 17.9 24.3 31.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 8.2 18.6 15.7 91.5 60.1 41.4 9.1 14.6 21.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 9.2 18.0 18.0 90.5 59.4 43.0 9.5 14.6 20.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 7.1 16.6 13.9 93.3 61.1 42.1 7.5 12.5 18.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 6.8 14.6 13.9 85.3 57.7 40.7 7.3 12.0 18.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 5.8 14.5 15.3 83.3 56.8 40.1 6.5 11.9 18.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 14.6 28.3 19.6 85.5 57.6 40.3 14.5 23.5 34.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 5.6 17.3 13.8 95.2 62.6 40.0 5.8 11.5 19.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 5.9 14.0 14.4 87.8 58.7 40.5 6.2 10.9 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 8.5 22.2 13.3 87.1 59.3 42.3 8.9 16.6 27.4 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 13.1 23.6 20.6 89.9 58.2 42.2 13.7 20.0 27.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 7.4 18.8 12.6 79.9 56.2 38.6 7.4 15.1 26.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 8.4 17.0 20.1 88.6 57.1 42.9 8.8 14.3 21.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 8.3 18.9 13.8 84.8 58.3 40.3 9.1 15.3 23.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 7.6 22.4 15.2 95.3 62.0 43.1 7.5 15.0 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 8.0 18.4 14.0 82.6 58.0 38.6 8.3 14.6 23.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 10.9 22.8 18.2 86.9 57.8 40.5 11.2 18.5 28.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 8.0 19.7 14.9 85.2 58.3 41.6 9.4 15.9 24.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 4.7 12.2 12.9 80.6 56.3 39.1 5.2 9.9 16.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 6.3 16.5 13.8 82.0 56.8 40.2 6.8 13.2 22.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 5.9 15.3 15.2 92.9 61.2 39.8 6.4 11.1 17.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 13.5 24.9 21.1 89.6 57.8 43.0 14.5 21.2 29.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 7.4 16.7 11.9 77.3 54.7 37.9 8.4 14.6 22.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------