***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.06.2021.-13.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 7.1 15.2 12.1 71.4 53.2 43.4 6.5 13.5 23.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 8.4 18.4 12.4 85.4 57.9 43.7 7.9 14.5 23.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 22.7 20.4 13.1 78.4 55.5 44.9 9.8 17.3 27.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 8.1 16.7 13.1 70.1 52.4 42.3 8.0 15.3 25.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 8.4 14.3 12.4 70.7 52.1 42.4 7.9 13.6 20.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 9.1 14.7 15.7 69.8 49.6 41.3 8.6 14.8 23.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 7.3 15.9 12.9 88.4 59.6 44.4 7.3 12.4 18.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 22.3 18.6 15.0 75.2 52.1 42.2 10.8 17.7 26.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 17.9 14.6 13.1 71.1 51.4 42.7 7.7 14.0 22.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 18.9 14.2 15.2 70.9 49.9 41.5 7.8 14.4 23.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 7.6 13.5 11.7 73.7 52.6 40.4 7.4 12.7 19.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 5.5 11.5 12.6 77.8 54.6 41.9 5.0 9.8 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 5.9 12.3 14.5 77.6 55.1 42.1 5.1 10.2 17.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 8.9 16.2 16.7 76.9 53.2 42.5 8.3 14.7 23.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 4.4 10.9 11.6 72.8 54.5 42.3 3.9 9.2 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 5.1 10.8 13.8 79.2 55.9 42.9 4.7 8.9 15.0 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 6.1 16.1 12.9 86.7 59.3 42.2 6.4 12.1 19.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 18.9 14.8 17.3 72.9 49.1 41.3 9.4 15.3 22.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 9.4 19.5 12.7 85.0 57.6 44.0 8.7 15.7 25.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 17.9 15.2 18.0 81.9 52.9 44.1 7.9 13.9 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 17.1 14.9 12.5 74.4 53.9 44.0 7.8 13.4 20.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 8.7 20.2 14.7 93.6 61.4 43.3 9.0 15.0 22.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 7.9 16.0 12.8 82.4 56.7 43.8 7.7 13.3 20.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 20.9 17.6 15.8 77.3 52.8 43.4 8.8 16.2 26.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 7.1 13.8 13.4 72.5 53.5 43.9 6.3 12.2 20.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 4.1 8.8 11.5 71.8 52.8 40.7 3.7 7.9 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 6.5 13.2 13.0 71.5 53.0 43.1 5.7 11.8 20.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 5.9 12.4 13.2 71.4 53.2 42.7 6.0 11.1 18.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 23.3 19.1 18.0 77.4 50.8 42.7 11.1 18.7 28.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 11.9 20.9 12.5 81.0 56.0 43.7 11.9 18.3 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------