***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.05.2021.-13.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 77.1 73.7 60.9 94.6 53.9 49.7 54.4 69.7 86.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 70.6 72.1 58.2 102.4 59.3 51.1 51.4 64.3 78.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 84.1 84.9 64.3 101.6 58.6 51.1 60.4 76.0 93.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 87.7 83.7 69.3 95.5 54.4 47.7 61.1 78.4 98.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 74.4 74.5 68.8 101.4 58.4 50.7 55.7 68.2 81.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 52.0 63.7 71.8 87.1 45.2 41.7 54.7 67.2 80.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 64.6 65.4 57.6 101.7 59.1 51.7 44.0 57.5 72.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 83.3 105.0 75.1 94.9 52.9 46.3 85.7 102.0 118.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 56.2 71.8 70.5 100.8 57.8 50.2 57.1 66.9 77.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 56.5 76.9 80.1 98.1 55.5 48.5 58.0 72.1 86.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 66.1 67.3 67.3 103.5 59.7 50.5 50.3 60.9 71.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 43.4 60.4 62.7 95.1 53.5 45.8 44.8 57.5 71.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 47.5 63.2 69.5 96.3 54.8 46.0 48.1 59.9 72.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 72.1 100.6 86.3 105.8 61.1 51.9 73.8 89.6 106.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 63.4 59.4 58.8 92.5 53.9 45.7 42.1 55.9 71.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 62.6 61.2 67.4 98.4 56.1 47.2 43.1 56.0 70.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 68.8 74.8 60.7 108.6 63.3 53.7 43.6 59.9 78.1 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 63.6 80.1 85.9 96.7 53.9 47.4 65.6 77.3 89.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 80.8 82.5 61.0 103.8 60.1 51.0 57.2 72.4 89.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 58.9 74.4 84.4 96.5 53.3 46.9 60.1 71.8 84.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 69.9 69.8 65.8 100.4 57.8 51.0 51.9 63.9 76.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 51.1 84.9 66.6 114.6 66.8 54.6 53.2 67.7 84.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 49.8 71.0 66.4 107.5 62.5 52.6 51.0 62.1 73.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 69.3 89.3 79.5 102.7 58.7 50.4 70.8 82.8 95.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 71.0 69.9 71.3 97.6 55.8 51.2 51.8 65.1 79.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 40.2 53.4 56.3 88.7 49.8 43.0 41.3 53.6 67.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 73.4 69.9 65.7 93.3 52.8 49.1 53.9 67.3 82.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 62.5 59.2 65.8 93.4 53.5 45.3 46.0 56.8 68.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 79.2 100.5 87.5 98.0 54.8 48.1 81.2 96.1 111.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 73.5 72.3 58.2 98.2 56.6 49.8 53.7 66.9 81.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------