***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2015.-24.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 15 85 100 13.7 14.7 16.1 2.5 87.6 81.5 11.4 12.3 13.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 13.3 14.0 15.2 1.9 83.2 76.5 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 15.2 16.1 15.7 2.2 86.2 80.2 12.7 13.7 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 10.3 10.4 12.5 1.3 73.6 70.4 7.4 8.6 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 11.8 11.9 12.9 1.3 75.2 72.1 10.1 10.8 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 18 82 100 10.6 11.0 10.7 1.6 79.8 77.1 8.9 9.6 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 16 84 100 13.5 14.2 15.5 2.1 84.1 78.2 11.3 12.2 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 17 83 100 5.6 6.1 10.8 1.6 80.6 77.8 3.3 4.3 5.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 12.7 12.8 13.2 1.3 76.2 72.5 10.9 11.7 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 19 81 100 12.5 12.7 11.6 1.4 77.9 74.7 10.7 11.4 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 12.3 12.5 12.2 1.3 76.4 73.4 10.6 11.3 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 10.5 10.9 11.6 1.7 80.9 78.1 8.6 9.4 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 19 81 100 11.8 11.9 11.2 1.3 75.1 73.2 10.2 10.8 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 13.4 13.8 13.1 1.5 79.7 75.0 11.4 12.2 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 13.5 13.7 14.2 1.3 75.2 71.5 11.7 12.5 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 20 80 100 12.9 13.2 11.9 1.4 76.7 74.1 10.9 11.8 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 13.6 13.8 14.3 1.4 75.6 70.5 11.6 12.4 13.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 17 83 100 11.1 11.3 10.7 1.4 78.5 75.0 9.3 10.0 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 13.5 14.2 15.3 2.0 84.7 77.7 11.4 12.3 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 15 85 100 7.2 7.4 8.6 1.4 78.1 75.6 5.4 6.1 6.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 17 83 100 12.8 13.2 15.0 1.8 81.2 76.7 10.9 11.7 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 12.7 13.1 14.5 1.5 77.8 71.9 10.9 11.7 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 13.1 13.9 15.2 2.2 86.7 80.0 11.1 11.9 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 18 82 100 12.7 13.0 13.0 1.5 80.2 75.5 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 15 85 100 13.3 13.9 14.9 2.1 83.2 78.4 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 11.2 11.4 10.8 1.5 75.0 72.9 9.6 10.3 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 14 86 100 13.9 14.7 15.3 2.2 83.9 78.7 11.3 12.4 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 11.6 11.7 13.1 1.3 74.8 71.6 9.9 10.7 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 19 81 100 9.9 10.3 9.9 1.4 78.7 75.6 7.4 8.5 9.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 17 83 100 13.8 14.8 15.8 2.3 86.6 79.9 11.5 12.4 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------