***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2015.-31.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 13.7 13.9 15.8 1.5 74.1 69.2 11.4 12.4 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 13.7 14.1 15.9 1.7 76.3 71.6 11.3 12.4 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 15.5 15.9 15.8 1.6 75.8 70.8 13.1 14.2 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 10.3 10.6 13.4 1.3 73.6 69.2 7.7 8.9 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 12.0 12.2 13.1 1.3 73.3 69.0 9.9 10.8 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 10.6 10.8 11.1 1.2 74.2 70.0 8.7 9.5 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 13.7 14.2 15.9 1.7 76.2 71.5 11.4 12.5 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 5.8 6.2 11.2 1.3 75.6 70.7 3.4 4.5 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 12.8 13.0 13.5 1.3 73.2 68.9 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 12.8 13.1 11.9 1.3 74.9 70.1 10.7 11.7 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 12.5 12.9 12.6 1.4 75.9 71.1 10.5 11.4 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 10.8 11.2 12.2 1.4 77.1 72.0 8.8 9.7 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 12.0 12.3 11.5 1.2 75.3 70.5 10.0 10.9 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 13.5 13.8 13.5 1.3 74.3 69.5 11.6 12.5 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 13.7 14.0 14.1 1.4 76.2 71.6 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 13.0 13.3 12.3 1.3 75.8 71.0 10.9 11.9 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 13.9 14.0 15.2 1.3 71.1 67.3 11.7 12.7 13.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 11.3 11.5 11.3 1.3 75.5 70.7 9.2 10.1 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 13.5 14.0 15.9 1.7 77.1 72.1 11.4 12.3 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 7.4 7.5 9.2 1.1 71.7 67.8 5.3 6.2 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 12.9 13.0 14.8 1.3 73.3 68.7 10.9 11.8 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 13.0 13.2 15.2 1.3 71.8 67.7 11.0 11.9 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 13.2 13.7 15.5 1.7 78.5 73.0 11.0 12.0 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 12.9 13.3 13.5 1.4 76.0 70.9 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 13.3 13.4 14.0 1.3 71.9 67.6 11.0 12.0 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 11.4 11.7 11.6 1.2 73.4 69.2 9.5 10.4 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 13.7 13.9 14.8 1.4 72.8 68.3 11.2 12.3 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 11.8 12.1 13.7 1.4 75.4 70.9 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 10.1 10.4 10.5 1.3 75.0 70.4 7.6 8.7 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 13.8 14.3 16.1 1.7 76.9 72.0 11.5 12.5 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------