***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2015.-14.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 15.6 15.8 17.4 1.1 71.7 63.7 13.8 14.7 15.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 15.5 16.1 17.8 1.4 76.2 67.1 13.1 14.3 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 17.2 17.3 17.3 1.0 70.6 62.8 14.7 15.9 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 11.7 11.9 14.8 0.5 60.2 56.4 9.8 11.1 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 11.8 13.3 14.5 0.4 60.0 56.2 12.0 12.8 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 12.1 12.1 12.4 0.3 57.4 55.1 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 15.5 16.1 17.7 1.4 76.0 67.1 13.4 14.4 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 5.2 7.1 12.5 0.4 59.8 55.7 5.4 6.5 7.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 12.8 14.4 14.9 0.5 62.0 57.0 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 12.5 14.1 13.2 0.4 60.3 55.9 12.6 13.6 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 12.5 14.0 13.9 0.4 59.9 56.4 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 12.0 12.2 13.6 0.5 61.9 57.5 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 12.2 13.6 13.0 0.4 59.9 56.5 12.3 13.1 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 15.5 15.4 15.2 0.8 67.1 60.8 13.4 14.4 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 15.0 15.3 15.5 0.6 62.4 57.6 13.8 14.7 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 14.3 14.4 13.7 0.4 60.1 56.7 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 15.8 16.1 17.3 1.2 73.2 65.5 13.7 14.7 15.7 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 11.3 13.0 12.7 0.6 63.1 57.6 11.4 12.3 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 15.4 15.8 17.7 1.4 76.0 66.9 13.3 14.3 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 7.0 8.4 10.6 0.4 58.5 54.8 7.1 8.0 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 12.7 14.6 16.3 0.7 65.0 59.0 12.9 13.8 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 14.9 15.3 17.3 1.3 74.6 66.5 12.9 13.9 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 15.0 15.3 17.2 1.2 74.9 66.1 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 12.6 14.9 15.0 0.7 66.3 59.8 12.8 13.8 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 12.9 14.7 15.5 0.7 64.8 59.3 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 12.9 13.1 13.2 0.5 61.8 57.5 11.7 12.5 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 14.5 15.3 16.4 1.0 69.8 62.6 12.9 14.0 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 13.1 13.3 15.1 0.5 61.1 56.9 12.0 12.8 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 9.2 11.3 12.0 0.5 61.8 57.0 9.4 10.5 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 15.8 16.3 17.8 1.4 75.6 66.6 13.5 14.6 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------