***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2015.-14.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 18 82 100 13.8 14.3 16.4 1.4 85.6 81.5 12.6 13.1 13.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 16 84 100 13.9 14.6 16.4 1.5 86.5 82.2 12.4 13.0 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 15.5 16.0 16.2 1.4 85.2 81.2 14.0 14.6 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 10.3 10.6 13.6 0.8 75.0 71.6 8.9 9.6 10.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 12.0 12.3 13.5 0.9 76.4 72.7 11.1 11.5 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 10.9 11.1 11.4 0.8 77.4 73.5 9.9 10.4 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 17 83 100 13.9 14.4 16.4 1.6 86.7 82.4 12.6 13.1 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 5.8 6.2 11.5 1.0 81.6 77.5 4.6 5.1 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 12.9 13.2 13.8 0.9 77.4 73.6 12.0 12.5 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 12.9 13.2 12.3 0.9 79.8 75.7 11.8 12.3 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 12.7 13.0 12.9 0.9 79.0 75.0 11.7 12.1 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 11.0 11.3 12.5 1.0 82.6 78.3 9.8 10.3 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 12.2 12.5 11.9 0.8 77.6 73.3 11.3 11.7 12.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 13.8 14.1 14.0 1.1 81.5 77.5 12.6 13.1 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 13.9 14.1 14.5 0.9 77.2 73.7 12.9 13.3 13.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 13.2 13.5 12.7 0.9 78.3 74.1 12.0 12.5 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 14.1 14.4 15.7 1.2 80.7 76.7 12.8 13.3 13.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 11.6 12.0 11.6 1.0 81.0 76.8 10.4 10.9 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 12 88 100 13.8 14.4 16.3 1.6 87.3 83.1 12.5 13.0 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 7.4 7.6 9.5 0.8 77.2 73.3 6.4 6.8 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 13.0 13.3 15.3 1.1 80.1 76.3 12.0 12.5 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 13.2 13.6 15.7 1.3 82.5 78.5 12.1 12.6 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 9 91 100 13.5 14.1 16.0 1.6 88.1 84.0 12.1 12.6 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 13.2 13.6 13.8 1.1 82.1 78.0 11.9 12.5 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 13.4 13.8 14.7 1.1 80.5 76.7 12.2 12.7 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 11.7 11.9 11.9 0.9 76.9 72.8 10.7 11.2 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 13.7 14.1 15.4 1.3 83.1 79.1 12.4 12.9 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 12.0 12.2 14.0 0.9 76.4 72.9 11.0 11.4 11.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 10.0 10.4 10.8 0.9 79.9 75.9 8.8 9.3 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 12 88 100 14.1 14.7 16.6 1.6 87.6 83.3 12.7 13.2 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------