***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2015.-24.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 14 86 100 25.7 27.5 27.0 3.6 87.3 83.7 21.6 23.2 24.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 11 89 100 26.1 28.7 28.1 4.6 93.0 88.8 22.3 23.8 25.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 14 86 100 26.1 28.0 27.3 3.8 88.1 84.5 22.2 23.7 25.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 18.8 19.7 23.4 2.6 79.4 76.0 14.8 16.5 18.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 17 83 100 26.5 27.7 24.9 3.1 82.6 79.6 22.3 24.0 25.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 24.6 25.1 22.0 2.5 76.9 74.7 21.0 22.5 24.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 13 87 100 25.6 28.0 27.7 4.3 91.8 87.6 22.1 23.5 24.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 17 83 100 14.4 15.6 23.1 3.2 83.6 80.5 10.7 12.2 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 13 87 100 25.9 27.1 25.9 3.2 83.7 80.6 21.7 23.3 24.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 14 86 100 25.9 27.1 24.2 3.3 83.8 80.7 21.8 23.4 25.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 26.0 27.3 24.7 3.2 83.0 80.0 21.9 23.6 25.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 16 84 100 24.9 26.2 24.1 3.4 85.1 81.9 21.1 22.6 24.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 15 85 100 26.2 27.1 24.1 3.1 82.1 79.5 22.3 23.8 25.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 14 86 100 26.2 27.9 25.8 3.7 87.1 82.9 22.1 23.7 25.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 26.2 26.9 25.4 2.4 78.4 75.2 22.8 24.3 25.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 26.5 27.6 24.3 3.0 82.0 79.2 22.6 24.2 25.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 13 87 100 25.3 27.4 27.2 4.2 90.8 86.2 21.8 23.2 24.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 16 84 100 25.3 26.6 23.5 3.3 84.2 80.8 21.4 23.0 24.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 10 90 100 25.6 28.2 28.0 4.6 93.0 88.8 21.8 23.3 24.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 18 82 100 20.4 21.4 21.0 3.0 81.8 78.7 16.7 18.2 19.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 14 86 100 26.0 27.2 26.6 3.2 83.6 80.4 21.9 23.6 25.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 14 86 100 25.8 28.0 27.0 4.1 90.9 85.9 22.2 23.6 25.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 10 90 100 26.1 28.7 27.7 4.5 92.5 88.3 22.2 23.7 25.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 15 85 100 25.5 27.0 25.6 3.5 85.7 82.0 21.6 23.1 24.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 17 83 100 26.0 27.1 25.2 3.0 82.4 79.0 21.9 23.6 25.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 15 85 100 25.3 26.2 23.0 3.1 82.2 79.5 21.7 23.1 24.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 14 86 100 25.8 27.1 26.0 3.3 85.2 81.6 21.9 23.4 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 26.2 27.0 24.3 2.5 78.2 75.1 22.6 24.2 25.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 18 82 100 20.4 21.6 22.5 3.2 83.4 80.0 16.5 18.1 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 11 89 100 26.0 28.5 28.0 4.4 92.1 88.1 22.1 23.6 25.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------