***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2015.-31.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 26.2 26.2 25.7 1.5 68.4 64.1 23.0 24.5 26.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 26.4 26.7 26.5 2.2 74.5 69.5 23.4 24.7 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 26.3 26.3 25.8 1.6 68.7 64.7 23.3 24.7 26.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 17.7 18.3 23.4 1.0 63.0 60.4 15.6 17.1 18.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 25.3 25.8 23.4 1.0 62.0 59.6 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 23.4 23.8 21.2 0.8 60.4 58.3 21.4 22.9 24.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 25.7 26.2 26.3 2.1 73.3 68.4 22.9 24.2 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 12.8 13.5 21.8 1.1 63.3 60.4 10.6 12.2 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 24.7 25.2 23.8 1.0 62.1 59.6 22.6 24.2 25.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 24.4 24.9 22.5 1.0 62.1 59.6 22.5 23.9 25.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 24.9 25.5 22.9 1.0 62.7 60.2 22.8 24.3 25.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 24.6 24.4 22.8 1.2 64.8 61.7 21.7 23.1 24.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 24.7 25.4 22.2 1.0 62.7 60.1 22.6 24.2 25.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 25.9 25.7 23.8 1.3 65.3 61.7 23.0 24.4 25.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 25.4 26.1 24.0 1.1 64.9 62.0 23.7 25.0 26.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 25.4 25.9 22.6 0.9 62.0 59.5 23.2 24.8 26.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 25.5 25.8 25.9 1.9 72.0 67.5 22.6 24.0 25.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 23.9 24.6 21.9 1.1 62.6 59.7 21.9 23.4 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 25.9 26.3 26.5 2.2 74.4 69.3 22.9 24.2 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 19.0 19.7 19.6 1.0 62.1 59.1 16.8 18.5 20.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 25.0 25.7 24.8 1.2 64.0 61.1 23.0 24.5 25.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 26.2 26.4 25.8 1.9 72.2 67.5 23.1 24.5 25.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 26.3 26.5 26.0 2.0 72.7 67.7 23.2 24.6 25.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 24.4 25.1 23.7 1.3 64.6 61.4 22.5 23.9 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 25.1 25.8 23.8 1.2 65.4 61.9 23.2 24.6 25.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 25.1 25.1 22.4 1.4 67.0 63.6 22.1 23.6 25.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 25.7 25.7 24.7 1.4 67.1 63.1 22.8 24.2 25.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 25.4 25.9 23.6 1.0 62.3 59.9 23.6 24.9 26.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 19.1 19.7 20.8 1.0 62.2 59.2 16.9 18.5 20.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 26.2 26.5 26.4 2.1 73.4 68.5 23.2 24.6 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------