***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2015.-14.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 28.5 28.7 28.3 1.7 72.4 64.7 24.8 26.5 28.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 28.0 28.7 28.9 2.2 76.5 66.8 24.6 26.2 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 28.1 28.2 28.4 1.7 72.2 64.2 24.5 26.1 27.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 17.7 20.6 26.0 1.1 64.8 59.1 17.9 19.4 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 28.4 28.0 26.0 1.1 64.9 59.0 25.0 26.6 28.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 25.7 26.1 23.5 0.8 61.3 56.8 23.7 25.1 26.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 27.5 28.2 28.7 2.0 75.7 66.2 24.3 25.8 27.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 16.3 15.9 24.4 1.2 65.5 59.3 13.0 14.5 15.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 27.7 27.3 26.4 1.2 65.6 59.4 24.3 25.9 27.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 27.5 27.1 25.0 1.2 65.5 59.2 24.3 25.8 27.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 28.1 27.8 25.5 1.2 66.2 59.8 24.8 26.3 27.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 27.0 26.8 25.5 1.3 67.4 60.7 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 28.2 27.7 24.7 1.0 64.1 58.7 24.9 26.5 27.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 27.6 27.5 26.3 1.5 68.6 62.0 24.2 25.8 27.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 27.8 28.5 26.5 1.1 65.5 59.7 25.9 27.3 28.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 28.8 28.3 25.2 1.1 64.6 58.9 25.5 27.0 28.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 27.3 27.8 28.3 1.9 73.4 64.6 24.0 25.6 27.1 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 23.3 26.6 24.4 1.2 65.6 59.5 23.6 25.2 26.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 27.5 28.2 28.9 2.2 76.5 66.8 24.0 25.6 27.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 21.4 21.8 22.1 0.9 61.6 57.0 19.1 20.7 22.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 28.0 27.8 27.4 1.3 67.5 61.0 24.5 26.1 27.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 27.8 28.3 28.3 1.9 74.0 65.2 24.4 26.0 27.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 27.9 28.4 28.5 2.1 75.3 66.1 24.3 25.9 27.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 27.3 27.1 26.3 1.4 68.1 61.3 23.8 25.4 26.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 28.1 28.1 26.3 1.3 68.3 61.9 24.9 26.4 27.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 24.4 27.2 24.8 1.0 64.0 58.8 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 27.7 27.8 27.2 1.5 70.7 63.6 24.5 26.0 27.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 25.7 28.4 26.2 1.0 64.1 58.6 25.9 27.3 28.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 18.3 21.8 23.4 1.1 63.9 58.6 18.7 20.4 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 27.7 28.3 28.9 2.1 76.2 66.7 24.4 25.9 27.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------